Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall By J. Miles Coleman
In the primary, blue-trending areas see higher turnout, power Joe Biden's strength; erosion for Democrats continues in some rural areas in the South.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— With very few exceptions, statewide turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary has been higher than 2016.
— Suburban areas have seen some of the sharpest turnout increases — though these areas tend to have higher population growth, they’ve also trended blue in general elections, perhaps a positive indicator for Democrats looking to the fall.
— Meanwhile, some rural areas that have been trending away from Democrats in places like North Carolina and Oklahoma saw turnout lag behind 2016.
— While Bernie Sanders seems to have a stronger opponent in Joe Biden than he did with Hillary Clinton, Sanders’ prospects may have been hurt by partisan realignment since 2016.