Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

February 9, 2023The State of Biden’s Next Campaign By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term.
— Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party — and the State of the Union is unlikely to help generate any.
— Biden’s best friend is weakness within the Republican Party, which was on display once again on Tuesday night.
February 8, 2023Mike Pompeo Versus Libertarians By John Stossel
 Former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will probably run for president.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            February 7, 2023Why Have So Many People 'Died Suddenly'? By Brian C Joondeph
The Twitter hashtag #DiedSuddenly has been trending based on the plethora of sudden and unexplained deaths among the young and healthy over the past two years. Stories abound and here are a few found at the time of this writing.
February 3, 2023We Don't Need Racial Quotas to Showcase America's Diversity By Michael Barone
   The ordinarily fluent and unperturbed Justice Elena Kagan seemed, judging from the transcript, to be sputtering a bit in the oral argument of the Supreme Court's case challenging the racial quotas and preferences used in admissions by the University of North Carolina.
February 2, 2023The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting By J. Miles Coleman
Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.
— Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply.
— This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups.
February 1, 2023A Surprising Politician By John Stossel
The next presidential race is on.
January 31, 2023Proposed Airline Merger Would Bring More Competition and Lower Fares By Stephen Moore
 If you want to see a classic case of how President Joe Biden's regulatory tendencies are strangling the U.S. economy and raising prices, look no further than the latest Justice Department efforts to kill an airline merger that is pro-consumer.
January 27, 2023Are Public Employee Unions Unconstitutional? By Michael Barone
How did it come to pass that public employee unions, which scarcely existed 60 years ago, have come to run public schools and myriad state and local government agencies?
January 25, 2023Population Panic By John Stossel
 Have you heard? The world is about to end!
   "60 Minutes" recently featured Paul Ehrlich, author of the bestseller, "The Population Bomb." "Humanity is not sustainable," he said.
January 24, 2023It's Official: Trump's Tax Cuts Paid for Themselves By Stephen Moore
 How many times have you heard President Joe Biden or Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) berate the Trump tax cuts as "a giveaway to the rich"?
January 20, 2023Time for Truth and Reconciliation on the Russia Collusion Hoax By Michael Barone
What are "the major problems this country faces"? Writing in The Atlantic, New York Times columnist David Brooks leads off his list with "inequality, political polarization, social mistrust" before concluding with the inevitable "climate change." Today's "inequality," he notes, is as "savage" as the inequality in the 1890s.
January 19, 20232024 Governors Races: A First Look By J. Miles Coleman
And an updated word on Mississippi.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.
— The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.
— If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire and Vermont. But they would be great Democratic opportunities as open seats.
— Mississippi moves to Likely Republican following the entry of a credible Democratic candidate after our initial 2023 rating release last week.
January 18, 2023The Recycling Religion By John Stossel
For decades, we've been told: recycle!
   "If we're not using recycled paper, we're cutting down more trees!" says Lynn Hoffman, co-president of Eureka Recycling.
   Recycling paper (or cardboard) does save trees. Recycling aluminum does save energy. But that's about it.
January 17, 2023Biden's ESG Investment Rules Threaten Your Retirement Savings By Stephen Moore
President Joe Biden's Labor Department recently announced a new rule that will permit money managers to play politics with trillions of dollars of people's retirement savings.
January 13, 2023What the Democratic Trifecta Hath Wrought By Michael Barone
America has just exited a biennium of Democratic trifecta -- control by the nation's and the world's oldest political party of the White House and majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. It is only the third such biennium in the last 40 years, since 1993-95 and 2009-11, the first two years of the Clinton and Obama administrations.
January 12, 2023The 2023 Governor Races By J. Miles Coleman
Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year.
— In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench.
— Louisiana and Mississippi should be easier contests for Republicans. Term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) will be hard for Democrats to replace, while Mississippi, where Democrats have not won a gubernatorial contest this century, will also be an uphill fight for them.
— The initial ratings for these 3 races are Leans Democratic for Kentucky, Safe Republican for Mississippi, and Likely Republican for Louisiana.
January 11, 2023COVID: Who Was Right? By John Stossel
It's now been three years since COVID hit.
January 10, 2023US Big Three Auto Companies Commit to Making Cars That People Don't Want By Stephen Moore
   I grew up in a household with parents who were of the Greatest Generation. They lived and shouldered through the Great Depression, and then their lives and families were thrown into turmoil on Dec. 7, 1941. My grandfather worked for the War Department in Washington, D.C., and during World War II, my father served in the Pacific Theater.
January 6, 2023Let's Base Policy on Real Facts, Not Misleading Statistics By Michael Barone
  From all those lists of best books of 2022, here's one with the potential to change public policy debate and discourse for the better. 
January 5, 2023The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors Most from uncompetitive districts By Kyle Kondik
Most from uncompetitive districts; recent primary results helped build the anti-McCarthy coalition
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE-- This article is being published following the adjournment of the House on the afternoon of Wednesday, Jan. 4 after the body failed to elect a speaker on 6 roll call votes held Tuesday and Wednesday. The House was scheduled to return at 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday.
-- The 21 Republicans who did not vote for Kevin McCarthy on every roll call generally, but not exclusively, come from uncompetitive districts. They almost all appear to have at least some connection to the House Freedom Caucus, the group of hardline conservatives.
-- Some recent choices by GOP electorates helped strengthen what would become this anti-McCarthy coalition.
-- The longer this goes on, the more need there may be for a creative solution, like we saw in Pennsylvania’s state House speaker election on Tuesday.

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If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

The State of Biden’s Next Campaign By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

Mike Pompeo Versus Libertarians By John Stossel

Why Have So Many People 'Died Suddenly'? By Brian C Joondeph

We Don't Need Racial Quotas to Showcase America's Diversity By Michael Barone

The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting By J. Miles Coleman

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

A Surprising Politician By John Stossel

Proposed Airline Merger Would Bring More Competition and Lower Fares By Stephen Moore

Are Public Employee Unions Unconstitutional? By Michael Barone

Population Panic By John Stossel

It's Official: Trump's Tax Cuts Paid for Themselves By Stephen Moore

Time for Truth and Reconciliation on the Russia Collusion Hoax By Michael Barone

2024 Governors Races: A First Look By J. Miles Coleman

And an updated word on Mississippi.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

The Recycling Religion By John Stossel

Biden's ESG Investment Rules Threaten Your Retirement Savings By Stephen Moore

What the Democratic Trifecta Hath Wrought By Michael Barone

The 2023 Governor Races By J. Miles Coleman

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

COVID: Who Was Right? By John Stossel

US Big Three Auto Companies Commit to Making Cars That People Don't Want By Stephen Moore

Let's Base Policy on Real Facts, Not Misleading Statistics By Michael Barone

The Political Profile of McCarthy’s Detractors Most from uncompetitive districts By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

Daily Presidential
Tracking Poll

Top Stories

If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

And an updated word on Mississippi.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

Daily PresidentialTracking Poll

Top Stories

Daily Presidential
Tracking Poll