December 15, 2022
A brief history of a competitive era.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The United States is in an extremely competitive era of presidential elections.
— In the 6 elections this century, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in all but 1 of them.
— Many of the states have been consistent in their presidential voting since 2000, although there have been key shifts that have altered the roster of most competitive swing states.
— Relative to the nation, much of the West has become more Democratic over the past 2 decades, along with some other pockets of the country, while many states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Greater South have become more Republican.
— The most competitive states in 2020 may be the most competitive in 2024: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Great Lakes region and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina in the Sun Belt.