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July 13, 2012

An Over/Under on Democratic House Gains By Kyle Kondik

In sports betting parlance, an “over/under” is a bet on whether there will be more or less of a given statistic in a certain game. So, in a football game, say the over/under is 50; gamblers would bet whether the total points scored would be more or less than 50. We include this reference just to make sure readers know what we’re talking about here, and also to include a regular Crystal Ball disclaimer: It’s our policy to never bet money on elections because we do not want to compromise our ratings.

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July 13, 2012

Why Obama's Still in the Race Despite the Bad Economy By Scott Rasmussen

There are plenty of reasons that the economy is the most important issue of Election 2012. Unemployment has remained high for a long time, and even 27 percent of those who have a job are worried about losing it.

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July 12, 2012

The Worst Financial Scandal Yet? By Froma Harrop

If only one in four American adults can name his or her U.S. senators, we can assume that even fewer know what Libor is. Libor (pronounced lie-bor) is at the center of another major financial scandal, but that may not improve its name recognition much. This is summer, after all, and making sense of financial manipulation requires effort.

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July 12, 2012

A Muddled Outlook for Olympics-ready London by Michael Barone

The best view of London's Olympic Park is from the picture windows at the top floor of the John Lewis department store in the vast Westfield Stratford mall five miles east of the Tower of London.

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July 11, 2012

Budget Insanity By John Stossel

Last year, Congress agreed to $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts, unless politicians find other things to cut. They didn't, of course. So now, with so-called sequestration looming in January, panic has set in. Even the new "fiscally responsible" Republicans vote against cutting Energy Department handouts to companies like Solyndra and subsidies to sugar producers. Many claim that any cut in military spending will weaken America and increase unemployment.

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July 10, 2012

Where They Play, Rich Conservatives Like Zoning by Froma Harrop

The weekend's memorable photo is of Mitt Romney driving his massive powerboat past a privately built castle, not unlike his own, on New Hampshire's Lake Winnipesaukee. On Sunday, he moseyed across the Long Island Sound to the beachy pleasure dome of billionaire conservative David Koch, in Southampton, N.Y. -- for a $75,000-a-couple dinner to raise money from like-minded Republicans. Not far away, Koch's brother Bill, a fellow funder of conservative causes, holds court in the exclusive waterfront enclave of Osterville, on Cape Cod.

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July 9, 2012

With Little to Say, Obama Eats Grits in Rust Belt by Michael Barone

"A step in the right direction." That's what Barack Obama said in Poland, Ohio, about Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment report, which showed only 80,000 net new jobs and unemployment remaining at 8.2 percent.

July 6, 2012

To Fix Health Care System, Put Consumers in Charge By Scott Rasmussen

Democrats were riding high in the polls in 2006 and 2008, and one of their big issues was health care. Then, after passing the president's health care law, the politics shifted, and the issue helped sweep the GOP to victory in the 2010 midterm elections. A few months later, Republicans had a 14-point advantage in terms of voter trust on the health care issue.

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July 5, 2012

Executive Women Are Not That Special, Either by Froma Harrop

Two cultural events have caught our attention this season. One is the stern graduation speech at Wellesley (Mass.) High School in which teacher David McCullough Jr. told pampered students, "Do not get the idea you're anything special." The other was an article in The Atlantic magazine by Anne-Marie Slaughter titled, "Why Women Still Can't Have It All."

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July 5, 2012

What If They Held an Election and Nobody Came? by Michael Barone

That's more or less what happened last Sunday in Mexico, at least as far as most American journalists (including me) are concerned.

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July 3, 2012

Obamacare Survives, but Political Playing Field Has Changed by Michael Barone

The Supreme Court's 5-4 decision upholding the Obama administration's health care legislation was a victory for the president, his administration and his party. Their most ambitious legislative achievement has not been nullified, and they are not left in obvious disarray.

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July 2, 2012

Obamacare Survives, but Political Playing Field Has Changed by Michael Barone

The Supreme Court's 5-4 decision upholding the Obama administration's health care legislation was a victory for the president, his administration and his party. Their most ambitious legislative achievement has not been nullified, and they are not left in obvious disarray.

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June 29, 2012

2012 Gubernatorial Update: Republicans Aim For Their High-Water Mark By Geoffrey Skelley

A record-tying year could be in store for Republicans in 2012. No, we’re not talking about Mitt Romney -- even if he wins, Romney will not equal Richard Nixon’s 60.7% popular vote share in 1972 or Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984. Rather, Republicans can tie a record in another category: the number of state governorships the party has held at one time.

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June 29, 2012

Fox's Brazen Star: Karl Rove Rebukes Obama on Executive Privilege Claim By Joe Conason

Forever incapable of embarrassment, let alone sober reflection, Karl Rove is very well suited to his current roles as Fox News commentator and Crossroads Super PAC smear sponsor. But he achieved a moment of near-perfection last Thursday when, appearing on a Fox morning news broadcast, he spoke up about President Obama's invocation of executive privilege against a House committee subpoena of Justice Department documents.

June 29, 2012

Supreme Court Keeps Health Care Law on Life Support By Scott Rasmussen

The U.S. Supreme Court's decision that President Obama's health care law is constitutional keeps it alive for now. But it's important to remember that the law has already lost in the court of public opinion. The Supreme Court ruling is a temporary reprieve more than anything else.

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June 28, 2012

Here's to the Yankee Doodle Liberal By Froma Harrop

In 1940, a Los Angeles jury released testimony linking James Cagney to the Communist Party, or at least to "communist members, sympathizers or heavy contributors." He had supported something called the Hollywood Anti-Nazi League, apparently not knowing that it was a Soviet front.

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June 28, 2012

Supreme Court Sets Stage for Immigration Reform by Michael Barone

The Supreme Court's decision announced Monday in the Arizona v. United States case opens the way for sensible reform of our immigration laws.

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June 28, 2012

The House's 15 Closest Races By Kyle Kondik

The conventional wisdom in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is that Democrats will pick up at least some seats, perhaps netting somewhere in the high single or low double digits, but won't pick up enough seats to seriously threaten John Boehner's speakership. Indeed, if we had to project the House right now, we'd say a net Democratic gain of less than 10 seats.

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June 27, 2012

In Praise of Discrimination By John Stossel

I'm scared. I fear that even if the Supreme Court overrules most of Obamacare (or did already, by the time you read this), Republicans will join Democrats in restoring "good" parts of the law, like the requirement that insurance companies cover kids up to age 26 and every American with a pre-existing condition.

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June 26, 2012

The War Against Battered and Confused Addicts by Froma Harrop

Rodney King's best statement isn't what he's famous for.

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