If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
June 23, 2016

The Electoral College: Map No. 2 By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Some of our readers may recall that the Crystal Ball published its first 2016 Electoral College map at the end of March. It was somewhat controversial — at least judging by many of the reactions we received. As you see below, at that time we projected Hillary Clinton at 347 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 191. While Toss-ups are perfectly reasonable at this stage of the campaign, we decided for clarity’s sake to push every close state one way or the other.

White letter R on blue background
June 22, 2016

Horror and Hush-Up in Twin Falls, Idaho by Michelle Malkin

Something wicked happened in Idaho's rural Magic Valley. The evil has been compounded by politicians, media and special interest groups doing their damnedest to suppress the story and quell a righteous citizen rebellion.

White letter R on blue background
June 22, 2016

Warning: Labels By John Stossel

When you use a coffeepot, do you need a warning label to tell you: "Do not hold over people"?

White letter R on blue background
June 22, 2016

While Obama Frets Over Islamophobia, Terrorists Get Guns By Charles Hurt

Weeks before killing 49 infidels in Orlando, Omar Mateen walked into a Florida gun store trying to buy body armor and a thousand rounds of ammunition. Suspicious about a Middle Eastern-looking guy jabbering a foreign language into a cellphone, the gun-store clerk denied the man service.

White letter R on blue background
June 21, 2016

A Tale of Two Elections: Clinton’s 2016 Primary Performance Versus 2008 By Geoffrey Skelley

One striking aspect of the Democratic primary race was the stark role-reversal in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance compared with her narrow loss to Barack Obama in 2008’s Democratic nomination battle. Whereas she ran against Obama in 2008, she positioned herself as his successor at every turn during her race against insurgent Bernie Sanders in 2016. It’s very easy to see the effect of this in a county-level map of the change in her performance from eight years ago to this cycle, as shown by the coloring in Map 1 below (a choropleth map). (We recommend clicking on the map for a much larger version.)

White letter R on blue background
June 21, 2016

Why We Have -- and Probably Will Keep Having -- Sluggish Job Growth By Michael Barone

Why has the American economy had such sluggish job creation and economic growth? That's a pretty fundamental question, and one for which most conventional economists have had unsatisfying answers.   

White letter R on blue background
June 21, 2016

Trolling for War with Russia By Patrick J. Buchanan

Some 50 State Department officials have signed a memo calling on President Obama to launch air and missile strikes on the Damascus regime of Bashar Assad.

A "judicious use of stand-off and air weapons," they claim, "would undergird and drive a more focused and hard-nosed U.S.-led diplomatic process."

White letter R on blue background
June 21, 2016

The Gun Control Farce by Thomas Sowell

Surely murder is a serious subject, which ought to be examined seriously. Instead, it is almost always examined politically in the context of gun control controversies, with stock arguments on both sides that have remained the same for decades. And most of those arguments are irrelevant to the central question: Do tighter gun control laws reduce the murder rate?

White letter R on blue background
June 18, 2016

To Win Bernie Voters, Hillary Must Make Big Changes By Ted Rall

Unless you follow politics closely, you could be forgiven for thinking that Hillary Clinton has locked up the Democratic presidential nomination. This is not true. She still doesn't have the requisite number of delegates. That could, and probably will, happen next month when her lead in superdelegates puts her over the top at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia -- when the superdelegates actually, you know, cast their actual votes.

White letter R on blue background
June 17, 2016

Brexit Causes Elites Angst -- But Britain May Leave EU Anyway By Michael Barone

"Market Angst as U.K. Edges to Exit," proclaims the headline on The Wall Street Journal's lead story. The exit referred to is Britain's departure from the European Union, a move that will be mandated if a majority votes "leave" rather than "remain" in the national referendum next Thursday.  

White letter R on blue background
June 17, 2016

Is Islamic Terror America's Future? By Patrick J. Buchanan

If the cliches hold -- nothing succeeds like success, the past is prologue -- this generation will not likely see an end to the jihadist terror that was on display at Pulse in Orlando on Sunday.

White letter R on blue background
June 16, 2016

As Deadline Approaches, Rubio Ponders. But his re-entry would not dramatically change the Senate calculus By Kyle Kondik

The horrifying massacre at a gay nightclub in Orlando forces us to ponder whether it will somehow change the national electoral calculus. The short answer is that it’s too soon to tell, but the grim reality is that the frequency of mass murder in the United States — committed by ISIS-inspired lone wolves or others — suggests that this, terrifyingly, might not be the last major spasm of violence that takes place between now and the election. How candidates react could have consequences in November, although it’s also easy to overstate the potential impact of jarring events on the choices that voters make. After all, the American electorate is partisan and the vote choices for the vast majority of them don’t waver much throughout the campaign.

White letter R on blue background
June 15, 2016

Florida: America's Jihad Playground By Michelle Malkin

The home of the "Happiest Place on Earth" has been breeding killer jihadists and Muslim zealots for years.   

White letter R on blue background
June 15, 2016

My Lunch with Hillary by John Stossel

I had lunch with Hillary Clinton.

White letter R on blue background
June 14, 2016

Will Orlando Change Anything? By Thomas Sowell

However great the shock of the massacre in Orlando, it is only a matter of time before we start hearing again the fact-free dogma that "diversity is our strength."  

White letter R on blue background
June 14, 2016

Islam & the West: Irreconcilable Conflict? by Patrick J. Buchanan

On Saturday night, Omar Mateen was a loner and a loser.

White letter R on blue background
June 14, 2016

Possible Errors in Exit Polls Suggest More Election Surprises Ahead By Michael Barone

Are the exit polls, on which just about every elections analyst has relied, wrong? That's a question raised by New York Times Upshot writer Nate Cohn -- a question whose answers have serious implications for how you look at the 2016 general election.

White letter R on blue background
June 14, 2016

Obama whiffs on national security, blames guns By Charles Hurt

Well, thank goodness we have President Obama on the case. He will get to the bottom of it and finally put a stop to all this murder, madness and mayhem.

White letter R on blue background
June 11, 2016

How the Media Manipulated the Democratic Primary By Ted Rall

Though it might not always seem like it, the news media is composed of human beings. Humans aren't, can't be and possibly shouldn't be objective. Still, there's a reasonable expectation among consumers of political news that journalists of all political stripes strive to be as objective as possible.

White letter R on blue background
June 10, 2016

Bernie Sanders Wins, Even While Losing By Michael Barone

Bernie Sanders is not going gently into that good night, at least not yet.

Daily Presidential
Tracking Poll

President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday

Top Stories

  1. Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
  2. Biden Approval Declines Again in June
  3. Happy Independence Day!
  4. ABC News: 'Answer Our Questions -- Or Else!'