Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

February 19, 2026A Flood of Open House Seats—But Not Competitive Open Seats By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— More than 50 members of the U.S. House of Representatives are not seeking another term in the House this year.
— The number of incumbents running again is going to be one of the lowest totals in any House election cycle since World War II.
— However, the vast majority of these retirements don’t mean anything for the November election because they are coming in safe seats.
— The open seats, collectively, feature a smaller share of truly competitive seats than the House as a whole does.

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                            February 18, 2026Waiting for Accountability: Why Kash Patel’s Numbers May Be Slipping By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
A recent Rasmussen Reports survey indicates that FBI Director Kash Patel’s popularity is declining. Only 40% of likely U.S. voters view Patel favorably. Even more revealing, just 32% believe he is performing better than most previous FBI directors, while 37% think he is doing worse.

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                            February 18, 2026Western Ideas Work By John Stossel
        Trigger warning:

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                            February 18, 2026Was Climate Change the Greatest Financial Scandal in History? By Stephen Moore
        Environmental scholar Bjorn Lomborg recently calculated that across the globe, governments have spent at least $16 trillion feeding the climate change industrial complex.

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                            February 17, 2026Why Are Anti-ICE Activists Building Borders? By Daniel McCarthy
        Anti-ICE activists in Minneapolis are setting up blockades.

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                            February 13, 2026Immigration Is Shaking Up Political Parties in Britain, Europe and the US By Michael Barone
        As British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces calls to resign for his appointment of Epstein-tied Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States, one is struck by the sudden instability of British governments. In the 28 years between 1979 and 2007, Britain had only three prime ministers, while in the 19 years since 2007, it has had seven, and may soon have eight. Only one of those, David Cameron, carried his party to a reelection victory, and he resigned a year after being beaten in the Brexit referendum.
February 12, 2026It Don’t Mean a Thing if it Ain’t Got That Swing: The Outlook for Electoral Accountability in 2026 By Alan I. Abramowitz
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Midterm elections often act as a brake on presidential power, but extreme partisan polarization calls into question whether the 2026 midterm will serve its usual role.
— However, despite growing partisan polarization, large partisan swings in the House and Senate still appear to be possible.
— This is truer of the House than the Senate, though, as nationalization has helped Republicans realize an advantage on the overall Senate map.
— States with Senate seats up for election in 2026, in aggregate, vote several points to the right of the nation, so even a substantial Democratic lead in generic ballot polling would not necessarily translate to a Democratic Senate majority, even though it very likely would in the House.

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                            February 11, 2026Fraud Nation By John Stossel
   Americans want to help people in need, but when government does that, about 500 billion taxpayer dollars get stolen.

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                            February 11, 2026Dow 50,000: A Supply-Side Miracle By Stephen Moore
   When I first arrived in Washington in 1982, the Dow Jones hit a low of 800. You may not believe that, so feel free to look it up.

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                            February 10, 2026A Japanese Lesson for Troubled Britain By Daniel McCarthy
        The contrast between America's great island allies on opposite ends of the world couldn't be more drastic.

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                            February 6, 2026Will Falling Birth Rates Mean a More Conservative World? By Michael Barone
   George Orwell was on to it almost 80 years ago -- the problem of below-replacement level birth rates. In a short book written for the Britain in Pictures series in 1947, written just as Britain was emerging from wartime rigors into an uncharted postwar future, Orwell noted that despite an upward blip in birth rates during the war, "the general curve is downward. The position is not quite so dangerous as it is sometimes said to be, but can only be put right if the curve not only rises sharply but does so within ten or at most twenty years."
February 5, 2026How Redistricting Scrambled the Crossover District List—and How It Could be Scrambled Even More By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In the 2024 election, just 16 congressional districts voted differently for president and for U.S. House. Democratic House candidates carried 13 Donald Trump-won districts, and Republican House candidates carried 3 Kamala Harris-won districts.
— Redistricting, however, has altered the picture and expanded the number of crossover districts. Based on the maps in place now, there are 24 crossover districts: 16 Trump-district Democrats and 8 Harris-district Republicans.
— Many of these newly-created seats are designed to flip to the party that won the district for president. If 2026 is like 2018, Democrats may have a more lopsided number of crossover districts than they did in 2024.
— Further redistricting moves in states like Florida, Maryland, New York, and Virginia could expand the number of crossover seats.
February 5, 2026Crossing the Chesapeake Bay: Maryland Democrats’ Renewed 8-0 Proposal By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Democrats in the Maryland House of Delegates recently passed a map recommended by Gov. Wes Moore’s (D) Redistricting Advisory Commission.
— The potential new map seriously imperils the delegation’s sole Republican, Rep. Andy Harris (R, MD-1), while firming up Democrats’ most marginal seat on the existing map, western Maryland’s MD-6.
— Despite the lower chamber’s vote, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) has emerged as a major opponent of mid-decade redistricting; he says he will not prioritize passing a new map.
— Even if the commission’s map passes the entire legislature, state courts could take steps to block its implementation, as was the case with a similar 8-0 proposal in 2022.

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                            February 4, 2026Girls vs. Boys By John Stossel
        Am I sexist?

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                            February 4, 2026I Guess That's Why They Call It the Blues By Stephen Moore
        The Democrats circa 2026 have almost become tax-and-spend parodies of themselves.

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                            February 4, 2026Trump and the Polls: A Current Assessment with an Optimistic View By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.
As President Donald Trump begins the second year of his second term, recent polls show a nuanced but not discouraging view of his political support. While the figures don't indicate a dramatic rise in popularity, they provide a solid basis for cautious optimism about Republican chances in the 2026 midterms.

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                            February 3, 2026The Trump Coalition Wins But the GOP Brand Doesn't By Daniel McCarthy
        Just how badly did Republicans do in two Texas special elections last weekend?

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                            January 30, 2026Big Surprises in the 2030 Census Estimates By Michael Barone
        About a month late, presumably due to last fall's government shutdown, the Census Bureau has released its estimates of the populations of the 50 states and the District of Columbia for July 1, 2025.
January 29, 2026The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.
— President Trump did well among young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 for a Republican, but he has seen his approval erode with those voters. However, that doesn’t have as much of a bearing on the Senate map, with Democrats having to compete in whiter states like Iowa and Ohio.
— Democrats do get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia, as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

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                            January 28, 2026Mr. President, Please Free Caleb Bailey By Stephen Moore
   "How can the life of such a man / Be in the palm of some fool's hand?" -- Bob Dylan, "Hurricane"