A Formidable President Storms Ahead By Michael Barone
Some thoughts spring to mind after President Donald Trump's 100-minute address to Congress.
Political Commentary
Most Recent Releases
March 7, 2025
March 6, 2025
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.
— Over 13 general election midterms held during the last half-century, just an average of 3 non-presidential party House members have lost per midterm.
— Redistricting as well as special election winners losing their subsequent general election inflate that total. Otherwise, a variety of other factors—including scandal, strong challengers, political circumstances, and more—contributed to these relatively rare losses.
March 5, 2025
What Exactly Does ‘I Support Ukraine’ Mean? By Brian C. Joondeph
Since the irritable, sweatshirt-clad Ukrainian president met with President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office last Friday, social media has been filled with profile pictures proclaiming, “I stand with Ukraine” and “Slava Ukraini.“
March 5, 2025
The Death of Europe By John Stossel
America needs more rules to protect workers, say some from both parties.
March 4, 2025
Europe's Decline Was a Choice By Daniel McCarthy
Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, might not shock Europe's leaders the way Donald Trump does, but he too has a tough message for them.
March 4, 2025
For Whom the Zelle Tolls By Stephen Moore
One of the more baffling lawsuits in the final days of the Biden administration was the complaint against Zelle, the popular money transfer network. The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau argued that, despite Zelle's service being free, the network's users were being ripped off.
February 28, 2025
Getting to Denmark By Michael Barone
Sooner or later, The New York Times catches on to the news. In the case of immigration policy, the news it has caught up with is that mass immigration, legal and illegal, from less-developed countries is politically toxic.
February 27, 2025
House District Loyalty in the Trump Era By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— In presidential elections since 2016, only 28 of the 435 current House districts have backed nominees of different parties.
— In next year’s House elections, districts that have been Electoral College bellwethers since 2016 could play a large role in determining whether Democrats can recapture the majority.
— Still, Republicans have some potential offensive targets in districts that have been national popular vote bellwethers.
— While House Democrats find themselves in a similar overall situation now as they did in 2017, the general contours of the House battlefield are different.
February 26, 2025
Does Everyone Hate What Trump is Doing? Far from It By Brian C. Joondeph
On social media, one might get the impression that Americans who voted for President Donald Trump now feel buyer’s remorse.
February 26, 2025
Trump Is Right -- Fire Bad Federal Employees and Reward Good Ones By Stephen Moore
All in Washington are acting like their hair is on fire in response to the Department of Government Efficiency requirement that federal employees list what they accomplished last week. Many are acting like they can't think of anything, like they may need to "phone a friend" to get an answer.
February 25, 2025
How Trump Makes Europe Stronger By Daniel McCarthy
President Donald Trump has a plan to save Europe, and the results of Sunday's election in Germany show it's working.
February 21, 2025
The Policies of European Elites End in Tears By Michael Barone
If you follow these things closely, you may have seen a clip of the chairman of the Munich Security Conference breaking down in tears, unable to speak any further while reflecting on Vice President JD Vance's speech there. This breakdown is remarkable because the chairman, Christoph Heusgen, is not a minor apparatchik but a sophisticated and knowledgeable official who was former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's national security adviser from 2005 to 2017.
February 20, 2025
Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.
— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.
— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.
February 18, 2025
The Civil Service's Partisanship Problem By Daniel McCarthy
Here's a dirty secret about the federal government many Americans are just learning:
February 18, 2025
Get Ready for America's 'Little Tech' Revolution By Stephen Moore
The spectacular dominance of America's Magnificent Seven tech firms -- with $1 trillion-plus market caps -- has been a marvel to behold and a genuine source of American pride. This is a theme that both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have in celebration of American business prowess.
February 14, 2025
Why Were Hopes of the 1990s Dashed? By Michael Barone
As one who shared the hope, after the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, that representative government, guaranteed liberties and global capitalism laced with some measure of welfare state protections would spread across the globe, I naturally look back over the intervening long generation and ask what went wrong.
February 13, 2025
Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.
— Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.
— We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.
— If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.
