Commentary by Michael Barone

Arizona, Not Trump, Shows Republicans the Way on Immigration By Michael Barone

In last Thursday's slam-bang Republican debate everyone saw Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz do a fine job of demonstrating Donald Trump's ignorance and inconsistencies. But many may not have noticed Cruz's citation of a Feb. 9 Wall Street Journal article that casts light on the immigration issue -- and suggests strongly that Cruz's and Rubio's serious immigration policies could prove more effective than Trump's bombast about building a wall and getting Mexico to pay for it.    

Trump's Rivals Must Make the Case for Themselves By Michael Barone

Does Donald Trump's big win in the Nevada caucuses mean he's the inevitable Republican nominee? He has made himself the favorite and could sew up the nomination with the first winner-take-all primaries March 15. But it's not inevitable that he will become the nominee. The question is how others can prevent it.

Trump won 46 percent in Nevada; Marco Rubio won 24 percent, and Ted Cruz won 21 percent. That's in line with polling, which showed Nevada to be one of the best Trump states.

February Clarifies Both Parties' Nomination Races By Michael Barone

In 2008, Barack Obama's great victories in February primaries -- Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin -- gave him an unstoppable delegate lead for the Democratic nomination. In 2012, Mitt Romney's wins in Florida (technically on Jan. 31) and Michigan sent him on his way to the Republican nomination.   

Who Will Win the Electability Vote? by Michael Barone

With the likelihood that the Supreme Court vacancy will not be filled this year, voters' minds are going to turn to questions of electability, writes my Washington Examiner colleague David Drucker.

Republicans Launch Sharp Attacks in South Carolina Debate By Michael Barone

The CBS presidential debate in Greenville, South Carolina, started off with a moment of silence in memory of Justice Antonin Scalia, whose death was announced earlier in the day. And the debate that followed was a sort of tribute to the late jurist.

New Hampshire's Rebuke By Michael Barone

New Hampshire voters issued a rebuke to conventional party leaders when they voted by large margins for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in Tuesday's primaries. But Sanders is not going to win the Democratic nomination, and it's by no means certain Trump will be the Republican nominee. 

How History Shapes the New Hampshire Primary By Michael Barone

Benning Wentworth is not a name you'll run across in New Hampshire primary coverage. But he arguably did as much as anyone else to establish the political culture -- or cultures -- of America's first-in-the-nation primary state.  

Probing for Clues in the Iowa Caucus Numbers By Michael Barone

Now that the results of last Monday's Iowa caucuses are in, speculation naturally turns to next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

Will Donald Trump fail once again to receive the percentage he's getting in polls? Will Marco Rubio build on his close third-place Iowa finish to overshadow rivals Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie, who have been rivaling him in New Hampshire polls?

Republican Debate Shows Where Comprehensive Immigration Is Headed: Nowhere By Michael Barone

Donald Trump was absent from Fox News' Republican debate Thursday night, presiding at his own event seven minutes' drive away featuring cameo appearances by the two previous Iowa Republican caucus winners exiled now to the undercard debate, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. But the issue Trump raised to high-decibel level at his announcement last June was front and center at the main event: immigration.

Missing From Both Parties' Candidates' Campaigns: Work By Michael Barone

From someone whose title is senior political analyst you might be expecting a forecast of who will win the Iowa caucuses next Monday night. Will Donald Trump voters turn out in enough numbers to give him the narrow win over Ted Cruz that polls indicate he has now? Will Hillary Clinton withstand the challenge and excitement generated by Bernie Sanders?

Americans Tired of Elites Considering Them Stupid and Vicious By Michael Barone

How stupid and vicious do they think we are? That's a question that I think explains a lot of things about politics and society today -- and about this year's unpredicted presidential race.

The "us" in that question are ordinary citizens and the "they" are political and media elites who hold them in contempt -- which they do over and over again by trying to obfuscate and cover up the source and motives of terrorist attacks.

Karl Rove: Why McKinley Still Matters By Michael Barone

The economy has been staggering, with stagnant or no growth, for several years, after a financial crisis. Loud complaints have been raised against Wall Street financiers and the concentration of great wealth in few hands. Rapid technological development is generating massive economic change, with many old-line jobs vanishing. Majorities disapprove of the Democratic president, as they had of his Republican predecessor.

The Republican Race Heats Up While Hillary Clinton Falters by Michael Barone

The race for president is accelerating in high gear, or, rather, the races for president -- in the Republican and Democratic parties, in the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary and primaries and caucuses to come. How's it going? Let's look at these separate races.

American Exceptionalism: How Has It Fared in the Obama Years? by Michael Barone

In his final State of the Union speech Barack Obama made at least a few bows toward the idea that America is an exceptional nation, an idea he once derided by saying, "I believe in American exceptionalism, just as I suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks" -- this was before their fiscal crisis -- "believe in Greek exceptionalism." We remain exceptional, he said in Tuesday's speech, as the world's strongest nation militarily and because we're doing better economically than most other large nations.

Census 2015 Shows Increasing Cultural Division and Political Polarization By Michael Barone

The Census Bureau has delivered its annual Christmas gift to demographic junkies: its estimates of the populations of the 50 states and the District of Columbia for mid-2015.     

Negative Campaigning Breaks Out in Republican Race by Michael Barone

Rough and tumble. Hammer and tongs. In the race for this year's Republican nomination, Donald Trump has not hesitated to attack and ridicule many of his opponents, and some of them have teed up attacks on him, only to hold back when they seemed to help rather than hurt him.

Battening Down the Hatches, Reminiscent of the 1930s By Michael Barone

Battening down the hatches. That's what America and much of the rest of the world seem to be doing today, in an eerie re-enactment, though to much less of a degree, of what America and the world did in the 1930s. The result then wasn't very pretty. The result now is unknown.

Obama Reshapes Presidential Politics -- But Maybe Not To Democrats' Benefit By Michael Barone

One thing that's striking about the presidential race, which, finally, officially begins soon, is how much the race has been shaped by Barack Obama. The course of the contests for both the Republican and Democratic nominations would be inconceivable absent the course of the Obama presidency.

Supreme Court Grapples, Once Again, With Redistricting By Michael Barone

Fifty-one years ago the Supreme Court handed down its one-person-one-vote decision, requiring that within each state congressional and legislative districts must have equal populations.

Conservatives' Biographies Show How History Can Move Right by Michael Barone

Biography is one way -- often the most vivid way -- in which people understand history. The beautifully written biographies of Franklin Roosevelt that rolled off the presses and rose in the bestseller lists in the 1950s and 1960s created a template in which the New Deal was central to American history. It was the culmination of what happened before the 1930s and the model for what should and would happen next.