Commentary by Michael Barone

May 20, 2016

'Ferguson Effect' Is Real, and It Threatens to Harm Black Americans Most By Michael Barone

University of Missouri at St. Louis criminologist Richard Rosenfeld has had "second thoughts." Like many academic criminologists, he had pooh-poohed charges that skyrocketing murder rates in many cities in 2015 and 2016 result from a "Ferguson effect" -- a skittering back from proactive policing for fear of accusations of racism like those that followed the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in August 2014.

May 17, 2016

America Today Resembles 1910 More Than Postwar Era By Michael Barone

What's your benchmark? What is the historical era with which you compare life in contemporary America?

May 10, 2016

Looking Back on the Two Cuban-American Also-Rans By Michael Barone

John Quincy Adams, our greatest secretary of state (sorry, Hillary Clinton fans), thought that Cuba would inevitably become part of the United States. It hasn't, at least not yet, but two Cuban-Americans were serious presidential contenders this year.

May 6, 2016

Can Trump Disrupt the General Election as He Did the Primaries? By Michael Barone

So Republicans now have a presumptive nominee -- one headed to a clear delegate majority without visible opposition -- sooner than the Democrats. It's another way in which this year's presidential race has defied expectations and ignored precedent.

May 3, 2016

Republicans Should Have Adopted Democrats' Rules -- and Vice Versa by Michael Barone

The unexpected successes, forecast by almost no one 12 months ago, of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in winning 40 percent and 42 percent in Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses is widely taken as evidence of raging discontent among American voters.

April 29, 2016

Donald Trump Isn't the 'Presumptive Nominee' -- Not Yet, Anyway By Michael Barone

Donald Trump has declared himself, after following up his New York win April 19 with victories in five other Northeastern states Tuesday, the "presumptive nominee" of the Republican Party. Is it a done deal?

April 26, 2016

Ethnicity Still Matters in the Politics of 2016 By Michael Barone

Ethnicity still matters. That's one lesson I draw from the results so far of this year's Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses.

April 22, 2016

New York's Home-State Winners Have November Problems By Michael Barone

Home-state candidates notched up impressive victories in New York's presidential primaries Tuesday. Donald Trump topped 50 percent for the first time -- and handsomely, with 60 percent of Republican votes. And Hillary Clinton won 58 percent of Democratic votes in her adopted home state.

April 19, 2016

New York Exceptionalism and Donald Trump By Michael Barone

Noo Yawk. That's the state with this week's presidential primary, in which candidates who have spent time in New York recently are currently running ahead, according to polls.

April 15, 2016

Donald Trump's Insincere Process Arguments By Michael Barone

"Gestapo tactics." That's how Donald Trump's recently installed campaign manager, Paul Manafort, characterized the Ted Cruz campaign's successful effort to win all 34 of Colorado's pledged national convention delegates at the long-scheduled Republican congressional district and state conventions.

April 12, 2016

The Tragic Deterioration of Washington's Great Society Subway by Michael Barone

If you live any distance beyond the Capital Beltway you probably didn't notice, but an important part of government in Washington shut down on Wednesday, March 16. That's when the Metro subway system's recently installed general manager, Paul Wiedefeld, ordered a one-day shutdown of the entire 117-mile system for emergency inspection of track-based power cables.

April 8, 2016

Wisconsin Republicans Bid No Trump by Michael Barone

"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again." That's the first sentence in a Trump campaign statement tweeted out Tuesday night by the Washington Post's Robert Costa. It's also a strange way to respond to a solid defeat, reminiscent of the Monty Python knight who insists he is winning after both his arms are hacked off.

April 5, 2016

Are Trump Voters Really Victims? By Michael Barone

What you hear when you listen to many fervent supporters of Donald Trump is that they are victims -- victims of globalization and trade agreements that have sent their jobs to Mexico or China. Victims of competition from illegal immigrants from Mexico willing to work for starvation wages. Victims of a Republican establishment that promised to get rid of lots of things they don't like and then failed to deliver.

April 1, 2016

Will Britain Leave or Remain in the European Union? By Michael Barone

On June 23, when Donald Trump will or will not have won the 1,237 delegates he needs to be nominated, voters in Britain will decide an issue as divisive as Trump's candidacy: whether the United Kingdom will remain in or leave the European Union.

March 29, 2016

Does Social Connectedness Explain Trump's Appeal? By Michael Barone

How can one make sense of the electoral divisions in this year's Republican primaries and caucuses? The contours of Donald Trump's support and opposition don't fall on traditional lines.

March 25, 2016

A Vote for Kasich Is a Vote for Trump By Michael Barone

Perhaps the most important results of the March 22 Republican primary in Arizona and caucus in Utah were numbers that didn't appear on your television screen, no matter how late you stayed up for the poll closing times. Those were the numbers of votes cast for Marco Rubio in Arizona -- 70,587 of them at this writing.

March 22, 2016

Donald Trump Has 37 percent. Hard to Get to 270 Electoral Votes By Michael Barone

Many Donald Trump supporters think he is a slam dunk to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. The candidate himself certainly takes this view.

March 18, 2016

Only Ted Cruz Can Stop Donald Trump By Michael Barone

Can Donald Trump be stopped from winning the Republican nomination? The answer is yes. Despite his big win over Marco Rubio in Florida and his narrow wins over Ted Cruz in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he has not won a majority of delegates yet awarded -- 661 at this writing, with several more to be added when Missouri and Illinois congressional district totals are tabulated.

March 15, 2016

Will the Politics of Nostalgia Trump the Politics of the Future? by Michael Barone

The likely presidential nominee of the Republican Party and the certain (barring indictments) nominee of the Democratic Party have something in common, something more than residences in New York: campaign appeals based on nostalgia.

March 11, 2016

Democrats Dispirited, Republicans Hobbled by Excess of Spirit by Michael Barone

Bad news for both parties in the primaries and caucuses in the seven days in March following Super Tuesday.

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