The Last Word--Almost
A Commentary By Larry Sabato
These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups.
We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism.
In January 2009 we'll start our focus on the new administration and Congress--and yes, the critical "Census/redistricting" midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato's Crystal Ball.
These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.
SENATE UPDATE:
|
CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS |
||
|
State |
Incumbent |
Projected Result |
|
Arkansas |
Sen. Mark Pryor |
Democratic |
|
Delaware |
Sen. Joe Biden |
Democratic |
|
Illinois |
Sen. Dick Durbin |
Democratic |
|
Iowa |
Sen. Tom Harkin |
Democratic |
|
Louisiana |
Sen. Mary Landrieu |
Democratic |
|
Massachusetts |
Sen. John Kerry |
Democratic |
|
Michigan |
Sen. Carl Levin |
Democratic |
|
Montana |
Sen. Max Baucus |
Democratic |
|
New Jersey |
Sen. Frank Lautenberg |
Democratic |
|
Rhode Island |
Sen. Jack Reed |
Democratic |
|
South Dakota |
Sen. Tim Johnson |
Democratic |
|
West Virginia |
Sen. Jay Rockefeller |
Democratic |
|
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS |
||
|
State |
Incumbent |
Projected Result |
|
Alabama |
Sen. Jeff Sessions |
Republican |
|
Alaska |
Sen. Ted Stevens |
Democratic |
|
Colorado |
OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)
|
Democratic |
|
Georgia |
Sen. Saxby Chambliss |
*** |
|
Idaho |
OPEN (Sen. Larry Craig retiring)
|
Republican |
|
Kansas |
Sen. Pat Roberts |
Republican |
|
Kentucky |
Sen. Mitch McConnell |
Republican |
|
Maine |
Sen. Susan Collins |
Republican |
|
Nebraska |
OPEN (Sen. Chuck Hagel retiring)
|
Republican |
|
New Hampshire |
Sen. John Sununu |
Democratic |
|
New Mexico |
OPEN (Sen. Pete Domenici retiring)
|
Democratic |
|
North Carolina |
Sen. Elizabeth Dole |
Democratic |
|
Minnesota |
Sen. Norm Coleman |
Republican |
|
Mississippi |
Sen. Thad Cochran |
Republican |
|
Mississippi (special) |
OPEN (Sen. Trent Lott retiring)
|
Republican |
|
Oregon |
Sen. Gordon Smith |
Democratic |
|
Oklahoma |
Sen. Jim Inhofe |
Republican |
|
South Carolina |
Sen. Lindsey Graham |
Republican |
|
Tennessee |
Sen. Lamar Alexander |
Republican |
|
Texas |
Sen. John Cornyn |
Republican |
|
Virginia |
OPEN (Sen. John Warner retiring)
|
Democratic |
|
Wyoming |
Sen. Mike Enzi |
Republican |
|
Wyoming (special) |
Sen. John Barrasso (appointed) |
Republican |
***We believe this race will go to a Dec. 2 runoff election. No candidate will receive 50 percent plus one on Nov. 4.
Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.
GOVERNOR UPDATE:
|
CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS |
||
|
State |
Incumbent |
Projected Result |
|
Delaware |
OPEN
|
Democratic |
|
Montana |
Brian Schweitzer |
Democratic |
|
North Carolina |
OPEN
|
Toss-up** |
|
New Hampshire |
John Lynch |
Democratic |
|
Washington |
Christine Gregoire |
Democratic |
|
West Virginia |
Joe Manchin III |
Democratic |
**Extremely close toss-up. We will declare this race on Monday.
|
CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS |
||
|
State |
Incumbent |
Projected Result |
|
Indiana |
Mitch Daniels |
Republican |
|
Missouri |
OPEN
|
Democratic |
|
North Dakota |
John Hoeven |
Republican |
|
Utah |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
Republican |
|
Vermont |
Jim Douglas |
Republican |
Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.
HOUSE UPDATE:
Produced under the direction of Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley.
Republican Held Seats in Play: 58
(The other 141 Republican-held seats are solid for the GOP.)
|
Republican Hold (20) |
Toss-up (9) |
Democratic Pick-up (29) |
||||||
|
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32 |
||||||||
|
Republican Pick-up (3) |
Toss-up (0) |
Democratic Hold (30) |
||||||
Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32
(The other 204 Democratic-held seats are solid for the Democrats.)
The Crystal Ball will make its final calls on all toss-up House races on Monday. These projections will be found on our website
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