Commentary By Kyle Kondik

The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment By Kyle Kondik

If there’s a trial in the upper chamber, who might feel the heat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Nationalization is an increasingly important trend in American election outcomes. It’s hard to think of a more nationalizing issue than a presidential impeachment.

— Vulnerable members on both sides in the Senate will have a lot to consider if and when they have to cast a vote on convicting President Trump in a potential Senate impeachment trial.

— There are two Senate ratings changes this week, one benefiting each side. The most vulnerable senator, Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, while Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

The Electoral College: Expanding the Map By Kyle Kondik

Trump is at least a small underdog in all the Clinton states, but trying to play offense is wise.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.

— While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up winning one or more states they lost previously, although there is one significant recent exception.

— However, the president seems to be at least a small underdog in every Hillary Clinton-won state. We’re moving New Hampshire from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in our Electoral College ratings.

Biden’s Challenge: Iowa and New Hampshire By Kyle Kondik

The schedule advantages Biden’s rivals, although it’s unclear if they can capitalize; NC-9 fallout.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar.

— Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white.

— However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in the leadoff states, they may not necessarily have much appeal to the crucial African-American voting bloc themselves.

House Ratings Changes: NC-9 Do-Over Election Going Down To The Wire By Kyle Kondik

MN-7 moves to top tier of GOP targets.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We’re moving the NC-9 special from Leans Republican to Toss-up with less than a week to go until the election. A confluence of factors makes the race too close and unpredictable for us to call.

— We’re also moving the NC-3 special election from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.

— MN-7, a truly unique Democratic district, moves from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik

The one big exception to the stability in the Democratic race; Trump’s high GOP approval defines the Republican primary; special developments in Georgia, Wisconsin.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners.

— Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong.

— Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) pending resignation expands the Senate playing field next year.

— Rep. Sean Duffy’s (R, WI-7) pending resignation sets up another House special election on Republican-leaning turf. The GOP remains favored to hold the district.

Notes on the State of Politics By Kyle Kondik

Debate effects can fade; Trump may be running behind his approval; the NC-9 special; a Magnolia runoff?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started.

— In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment.

— The NC-9 special House election moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican.

— Mississippi’s GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed to a runoff.

2020 Redistricting: An Early Look By Kyle Kondik

GOP retains edge, but perhaps not as sharp of one as it had following 2010.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The Supreme Court’s recent decision to stay out of adjudicating gerrymandering doesn’t necessarily change anything because the court had never put limits on partisan redistricting in the first place.

— Republicans are still slated to control the drawing of many more districts than Democrats following the 2020 census, although there are reasons to believe their power will not be as great as it was following the last census.

— How aggressively majority parties in a number of small-to-medium-sized states target incumbents of the minority party following 2020 may help tell us whether the Supreme Court’s decision will lead to more aggressive gerrymanders.

Presidential Primary Debate History: Lessons for 2020 By Kyle Kondik

Candidate showdowns go back many decades, but have only recently become part of the nomination fabric.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— There have been nearly 200 presidential primary debates since 1948.

— Almost all of them have been held in the last four decades.

— Although Democrats have a record-breaking primary field, they do not appear likely to break the record for the number of candidates appearing on a stage at once, 11, set by Republicans last cycle.

— No incumbent president has participated in a primary debate, and Donald Trump seems likely to continue that trend.

Senate 2020: The Primary Challengers By Kyle Kondik

No incumbents lost in 2014, 2016, or 2018. Who might be vulnerable in 2020?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House.

— However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate primary loser.

— A few senators appear to face challenges that could threaten them.

— Primary upsets could change the general election odds in some key races.

SENATE 2020: THE PRIMARY CHALLENGERS By Kyle Kondik

The last time this current crop of senators, Class II, was up for election, in 2014, no senators lost their primaries. This represented a change from the previous two cycles, which featured significant primary upheaval, particularly on the Republican side.

The Shadow of 1998 By Kyle Kondik

Revisiting and reassessing the GOP’s poor showing and the role of impeachment in the result.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The 1998 election has invariably come up a lot as House Democrats consider whether to impeach President Donald Trump.

— That’s because Republicans had high expectations for that election but ended up flopping.

— While impeachment probably did hurt the Republicans in some districts, it may have been that Clinton’s popularity in a time of peace and prosperity would have insulated Democrats from big losses even if the GOP had held off on impeachment.

House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries By Kyle Kondik

A week before Rep. Joe Crowley decisively lost his primary last year, I tweeted about Crowley’s potential vulnerability, with the caveat that “I have little idea if Rep. Joe Crowley (D, NY-14) is actually seriously threatened by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in his primary next week.” A member of Crowley’s staff sent me an email that quoted this question I raised and said, “He's not. Not at all.”

Notes on the State of the Senate By Kyle Kondik

GOP remains favored to hold the majority overall.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Senate retirements are not having a dramatic effect on the partisan odds in any race so far.

— Democrats have missed on some Senate recruits, and that may (or may not) matter in the long run.

— Alabama and Colorado remain the likeliest states to flip, with the Democratic-held Yellowhammer State the likeliest of all.

— Arizona is the purest Toss-up.

— Republicans remain favored overall.

Notes on the State of the House By Kyle Kondik

The Democrats' generic ballot edge endures, at least for now, but they shouldn’t get their hopes up on redistricting.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While it’s very early in the cycle and these polls are not predictive so far in advance, the House generic ballot polling right now looks very similar to what we saw this time two years ago.

— Republicans almost certainly will need to lead on the generic ballot to retake the House, but perhaps they won’t need as big of a lead as we’ve seen in the past because of the nature of partisan voting in a presidential year and their abundance of targets in districts President Trump can or will carry.

— If new House maps are created in Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio because of various court orders, Democrats would benefit on balance. But it may very well be that no maps end up being changed.

Assessing Electability: Like Nailing Jell-O To A Wall By Kyle Kondik

Democrats are trying to figure out who is the best to beat Trump. It’s a difficult task.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Trump’s victory in 2016 presents a great counter-argument to the idea that campaign professionals and pundits can confidently determine in advance who is electable to the presidency and who is not.

— Many presidents beyond Trump have seemed unelectable at various points of their ultimately successful campaigns.

— As Democrats consider who has the best chance against Trump, they will have to sort through different kinds of electability arguments, any one of which may be right (or wrong), and only one of which will actually be tested.

Biden Would be Arguably the Most Experienced New President Ever By Kyle Kondik

He will run as the president who needs no training. But he may be the candidate who cannot be trained.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— If Joe Biden wins the presidency, he will bring with him nearly a half-century of elected officeholding experience, giving him perhaps the fullest resume of public service possessed by any new president ever.

— It may be that Democrats are more open to a very experienced candidate than Republicans were in 2016, when they selected a presidential nominee, Donald Trump, with no elected or military experience.

— Biden has a very long record to defend, a burden that other, much less experienced candidates do not have. He also will have to show that he has learned from past mistakes and can run a disciplined, strong campaign.

Trump’s Primary Goal: Avoiding a New Hampshire Hiccup By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— President Trump remains a huge favorite to win renomination as the Republican presidential nominee, although he will have at least some opposition.

— The New Hampshire primary has historically tested the strength of presidential incumbents.

— In the primary’s modern history, incumbents who won easy victories went on to renomination and reelection, while those who struggled lost in the fall or didn’t run again.

— That said, we’re only talking about a dozen total contests, so don’t make any strong predictions based on the president’s New Hampshire showing. But depending on the circumstances, Trump’s eventual performance may provide some clues for the general election.

The Democratic Nomination: It Doesn’t Have to be a Long Slog By Kyle Kondik

The size of the Democratic field, combined with the party’s proportional allocation of delegates and other factors, raises the possibility of a very long nomination process that may not be decided until the convention.

This Century’s Electoral College Trends By Kyle Kondik

It has become common to describe our home state of Virginia as a state that is “trending Democratic.” That’s an observation we agree with — we used that exact term a few weeks ago in our initial Electoral College ratings. But what are we really saying when we use a term like that?

The 2020 Electoral College: Our First Look By Kyle Kondik

— Our initial Electoral College ratings reflect a 2020 presidential election that starts as a Toss-up.

— We start with 248 electoral votes at least leaning Republican, 244 at least leaning Democratic, and 46 votes in the Toss-up category.

— The omissions from the initial Toss-up category that readers may find most surprising are Florida and Michigan.

— Much of the electoral map is easy to allocate far in advance: About 70% of the total electoral votes come from states and districts that have voted for the same party in at least the last five presidential elections.