Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Big and Little Nothings By Kyle Kondik

Yes, we know reporters have to react to news and find ways to make it relevant, but pardon us if we didn’t gag a little bit seeing headlines about the potential impact of Chelsea Clinton’s pregnancy on her mother’s potential presidential campaign. Some said the baby was timed for the campaign — because everyone knows a grandkid on the knee is a guaranteed vote-getter. (That’s why Mitt Romney won in a 2012 landslide.) Others suggested the opposite: Hillary Clinton was all ready to run until this news broke: Now she and Bill will want to babysit instead of barnstorming in Iowa (puh-leeze).

Senate Update: Domino Effects By Kyle Kondik

To demonstrate just how Republican this year’s Senate playing field is, consider this: Of the 36 Senate elections this year (33 regularly scheduled and three specials), the Crystal Ball sees 16 as at least potentially competitive at the moment. Of those races, 14 are currently held by Democrats, and just two are held by Republicans.

Hard Targets? By Kyle Kondik

One needs little more than just fingers and toes to count the number of House members who represent districts won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2012. As mentioned here previously, just 25 House members — nine Democrats and 16 Republicans — hold such “crossover” districts. Compare that to 2004, when there were 59 such seats, or 2008, when there were 83.

House 2014: A Narrowing Battlefield? By Kyle Kondik

Ticket-splitters are getting rarer and rarer, at least based on the dwindling number of congressional districts where different parties won the presidential vote and the House seat. And that potentially reduces the number of targets for both sides as we examine 2014’s House playing field.

Gubernatorial And House Ratings Update By Kyle Kondik

While other gubernatorial races may get closer as Election Day nears, right now the top gubernatorial tilts in the country are in two small but politically active states: New Hampshire and Montana.

Akin Favored In Missouri by Kyle Kondik

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) got the opponent she wanted. But she still enters the general election season as an underdog.

An Over/Under on Democratic House Gains By Kyle Kondik

In sports betting parlance, an “over/under” is a bet on whether there will be more or less of a given statistic in a certain game. So, in a football game, say the over/under is 50; gamblers would bet whether the total points scored would be more or less than 50. We include this reference just to make sure readers know what we’re talking about here, and also to include a regular Crystal Ball disclaimer: It’s our policy to never bet money on elections because we do not want to compromise our ratings.

The House's 15 Closest Races By Kyle Kondik

The conventional wisdom in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is that Democrats will pick up at least some seats, perhaps netting somewhere in the high single or low double digits, but won't pick up enough seats to seriously threaten John Boehner's speakership. Indeed, if we had to project the House right now, we'd say a net Democratic gain of less than 10 seats.

Let's Not Overreact to the Judd Mutiny By Kyle Kondik

We would make a joke about President Obama only taking 59% of the West Virginia primary vote against a federal prison inmate named Keith Judd, but every possible one was exhausted on Twitter by Wednesday morning. Suffice it to say, it was an embarrassing performance for the president, albeit in a state he has no chance of winning in November.

Democrats’ House Hopes Could Run Aground in Great Lakes By Kyle Kondik

During the War of 1812, Commodore Oliver Hazard Perry whipped the British in the famous Battle of Lake Erie. Nearly 200 years later, winning Lake Erie won’t suffice for Democrats seeking to reclaim the House; they need to win on the shores of all five Great Lakes.

Now that decennial redistricting is nearly over, we have a relatively complete picture of where and how the race for the House will be run. While there are hotspots all over the country, the key region that will determine future control of the House is a combination of the Midwest and the Northeast — the eight states that touch the Great Lakes: Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Voter Disgust: What Might it Mean for the House Race? By Kyle Kondik

We here at the Crystal Ball, and of course our readers, love politics. But Americans don’t, especially now: Congress is historically unpopular, and Americans are so sick of politics that more than two-thirds of them according to one survey wished the presidential campaign was over even before it officially started.

Fortress Red, Fortress Blue: The Partisan Bedrock Of The New House By Kyle Kondik

Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said that "There is nothing I love as much as a good fight." If so, he would've hated where the House is headed for the next decade, because by and large it likely won't have all that many good fights.

Herman Cain and the Non-Politician Politician By Kyle Kondik

In the last election cycle, several "non-politician politicians" -- candidates who have never held public office who ran for a major office -- went from obscurity to high office.

Democrats’ House Hopes Hinge on Obama By Kyle Kondik

Just a day before Election Day, the painful reality hit home for Jimmy Carter: He was toast.

In Ohio, Labor Showdown Looms By Kyle Kondik

In the vengeful world of politics, what goes around often comes around.

In Iowa, It's Up Close and Personal By Kyle Kondik

As the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames was wrapping up Saturday, a reporter rushed onto the floor of Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum, where the press was filing their stories. She went up to her colleagues with what she said was a new, breaking quote from Michele Bachmann: Bachmann, the reporter said, had just vowed to make Barack Obama a "one-term president."

Fundraising: Much Ado Over Not All That Much By Kyle Kondik

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

Channeling Truman? The Race For The House By Kyle Kondik

In November 1946, a tall, mustachioed figure stood alone on a railroad platform at Washington's Union Station, waiting for the president of the United States to make his ignominious return to the capital. In victorious times, the platform would have been full of welcomers; as it was then, at the time of their party's defeat, Dean Acheson, the future secretary of state, was the only one waiting for President Harry Truman.

NY-26 Special Election: Mind The Debate, Forget The Decision By Kyle Kondik

The nation got a preview of the Democrats' sweeping congressional election victories in 2010 when Democratic candidates pulled off victories in three close special House elections. The results were just the first of many for Democrats in the last cycle, when…

The President and the Democrats, Post-bin Laden By Kyle Kondik

The death of Osama bin Laden, inflicted by crack U.S. Special Forces personnel acting on the orders of President Barack Obama, is undoubtedly a triumph for the embattled commander in chief. But will it provide him tangible political help when he stands for reelection a year and a half from now?