Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race Moves to Leans Democratic After the Establishment’s Great Escape; Other Primary Takeaways; Rating Changes in Montana and Ohio By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) did just enough down the stretch of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary to edge out far-left state Rep. Francesca Hong (D).

— Crowley enters the fall campaign as a modest favorite to hold the Wisconsin governorship for Democrats. If Hong had won, the race would have remained a Toss-up.

— The tally of House incumbent primary losers, already high, increased on Tuesday as Rep. John Larson (D, CT-1) was swamped. Meanwhile, South Carolina Republicans set up a Senate runoff in two weeks as appointed Sen. Darline Graham (R) attempts to hang onto her late brother’s seat.

— The Montana Senate race moves further toward Republicans, while Rep. Max Miller’s (R, OH-7) embattled reelection bid becomes a Toss-up.

The 2026 House Map is No More Favorable to Republicans than the 2018 Map was By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans made the House map better for themselves compared to the 2024 map by winning this cycle’s expansive redistricting fight.

— However, comparing this year’s map to the district lines in place in 2018—the last midterm held under President Trump—puts the 2026 House map in a different light.

— By a number of metrics, the 2026 House map is no more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map, and it may actually be a little less favorable.

— The median House district by presidential performance is less Republican, the number of districts that voted to the right of the nation for president is smaller, and the number of plausible Democratic House targets based on history is comparable.

Presidential Approval on the Path to the Midterm: The Pattern is That There is No Pattern By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— One wouldn’t expect the president to get much of an approval boost from the nation’s 250th anniversary, particularly as he handles it in a highly partisan way.

— The president’s approval numbers, much like gas prices, are a little better lately, but still worse than they were before the attack on Iran.

— There is not a consistent pattern for postwar presidential approval from July 1 to the midterm, and in recent years a president’s approval hasn’t changed much over the last four months of the campaign.

If Democrats Get a 2006-Style Senate Result, It May be Because Trump Has a 2006-Style Approval Rating By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While the 2018 midterm was generally a “blue wave,” Republicans still held the Senate. If Democrats want to flip the Senate, they’ll need a year that’s more like 2006.

— The Senate map was in some ways completely different heading into the 2006 election as opposed to the Senate map we have now, and it was less tied to presidential partisanship.

— However, there are some commonalities between the top Democratic Senate targets in 2006 and in 2026, although the comparisons require some stretching.

— But more important is President Trump’s approval rating, which probably needs to be more like George W. Bush’s in 2006 than Trump’s own approval in 2018 in order for Democrats to flip the Senate.

The Senate: The Race for the Majority is Not a Toss-up, But the Races That Will Decide It Are By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making three Senate rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats. North Carolina moves to Leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio are now Toss-ups.

— This makes the Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.

— Democrats need to win all four of our Toss-ups to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.

— Democrats also have their work cut out for them in the four Toss-ups, albeit for different reasons. In Maine and Michigan, there are questions about the quality of the Democratic candidates. In Alaska and Ohio, meanwhile, the questions are more about Democrats’ ability to overcome each state’s pronounced GOP lean.

Rating Changes in Iowa Following Tuesday’s Primary By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R, IA-4), who got a late endorsement from Donald Trump, lost a gubernatorial primary to Zach Lahn, an anti-establishment newcomer.

— Regardless of who the GOP picked to run against state Auditor Rob Sand, the Democratic nominee for governor, we have been considering moving the race to Toss-up—and we are making that change today.

— We are also bumping both Iowa’s Senate race and the contest for the state’s 2nd District from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

— With the Supreme Court allowing Alabama to use a 6-1 Republican map, mid-decade redistricting may be coming to a close, at least for 2026.

— In Vermont, popular Gov. Phil Scott (R) announced at the last minute that he’d seek a sixth term; his decision means that the GOP will almost certainly keep the state’s governor’s mansion for at least 2 more years.

Texas Senate to Leans Republican Following Paxton Win; TX-35 Makes Same Move; Redistricting Updates By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the closely watched Texas Senate race, state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) easily defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R) in yesterday’s GOP runoff.

— With Paxton’s nomination, the Texas Senate race moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as Republicans went with a riskier general election candidate. But, as our rating suggests, riskier can still win.

— We are making the same move in TX-35, a San Antonio-area seat that was redrawn to have a mild red hue, as Democrats avoided nominating their weaker option.

— Elsewhere in the South, it appears South Carolina’s House map will retain one blue-leaning seat for the 2026 election.

House Rating Changes: 17 Shifts in Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Elsewhere By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In addition to formalizing nine ratings changes in Florida following the state adopting a new Republican gerrymander, we also are making eight other changes.

— These come in some states that were at the center of Tuesday night’s electoral action: Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana, with others coming in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Texas.

— The Florida changes, on balance, help the GOP bottom line in the House, while the other changes benefit Democrats.

— Our overall House ratings show 213 districts rated as Safe, Likely, or Leans Democratic, 207 rated Safe, Likely, or Leans Republican, and 15 rated as Toss-ups.

Voters Approving Virginia Democratic Gerrymander Puts Democrats on Cusp of 218 House Seats in Ratings, but Questions Remain By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Virginia voters on Tuesday evening approved a new Democratic U.S. House gerrymander.

— As a result, we are moving four House ratings in favor of Democrats.

— The new Virginia map is not completely set, though, as the Supreme Court of Virginia could still revert to the old map if it finds that Virginia Democrats did not follow proper procedure in presenting this constitutional amendment to voters.

The House: 11 Rating Changes in Democratic-Held Seats; Non-Presidential Party Typically Doesn’t Lose Many of Their Own Seats in Midterms By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Because the presidential party usually loses ground in the House in midterms, it is also the case that they typically flip only a handful of seats from the non-presidential party in such elections.

— Still, Republicans have a decent chance to flip a larger-than-average number of Democratic-held seats in 2026, mainly because of redistricting.

— Beyond seats affected by redistricting, though, history and other factors suggest Republicans will have a hard time significantly cutting into Democratic districts unaffected by redistricting.

— We are moving 11 ratings this week, all in current Democratic-held districts and all in favor of Democrats.

— Democrats remain favored to win the House majority this year, although today’s changes do not impact the overall House math much.

Six Gubernatorial Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans May Still Come Out Ahead By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making six gubernatorial race rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats.

— The most notable ones come in Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio, while the others are blue state governorships in Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island moving to Safe Democratic.

— Despite these changes, Republicans may still be better-positioned to maintain an overall advantage in governorships held, and thus defy the usual trend of gubernatorial losses for the president’s party in midterms.

It Wouldn’t Take Much for 2026 to be a Big Year for House Incumbent Primary Defeats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The primary season begins Tuesday night, and several sitting House members are facing credible primary opposition.

— Typically, only a handful of House incumbents lose renomination in a given year.

— In the postwar era, only about an average of 6.5 incumbents have lost renomination each cycle, and the renomination rate for House incumbents who seek another term is greater than 98%.

— However, that also means that it would not take many incumbent losses for 2026 to rank as a big year, historically, for incumbent primary defeats.

A Flood of Open House Seats—But Not Competitive Open Seats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— More than 50 members of the U.S. House of Representatives are not seeking another term in the House this year.

— The number of incumbents running again is going to be one of the lowest totals in any House election cycle since World War II.

— However, the vast majority of these retirements don’t mean anything for the November election because they are coming in safe seats.

— The open seats, collectively, feature a smaller share of truly competitive seats than the House as a whole does.

How Redistricting Scrambled the Crossover District List—and How It Could be Scrambled Even More By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the 2024 election, just 16 congressional districts voted differently for president and for U.S. House. Democratic House candidates carried 13 Donald Trump-won districts, and Republican House candidates carried 3 Kamala Harris-won districts.

— Redistricting, however, has altered the picture and expanded the number of crossover districts. Based on the maps in place now, there are 24 crossover districts: 16 Trump-district Democrats and 8 Harris-district Republicans.

— Many of these newly-created seats are designed to flip to the party that won the district for president. If 2026 is like 2018, Democrats may have a more lopsided number of crossover districts than they did in 2024.

— Further redistricting moves in states like Florida, Maryland, New York, and Virginia could expand the number of crossover seats.

The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.

— President Trump did well among young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 for a Republican, but he has seen his approval erode with those voters. However, that doesn’t have as much of a bearing on the Senate map, with Democrats having to compete in whiter states like Iowa and Ohio.

— Democrats do get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia, as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Low Gas Prices Don’t Seem to be Moving the Needle for Trump—and He’s No Exception Historically By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The price of a gallon of gasoline in President Trump’s first year in office has been relatively low, with gas recently dipping under $3 a gallon on average for the first time in half a decade, when the pandemic was having a major effect on the economy and society at large.

— That said, Trump’s overall approval rating remains underwater, and it is weaker now than it was a few months ago. Trump’s approval numbers on the economy and inflation—the latter of which would seem to be most connected to the price of gasoline—are weaker than his overall approval.

— There is some connection, historically, between gas prices and presidential approval, but that connection has been weaker lately.

Dem Wave Hits Virginia, New Jersey, and Elsewhere; a Dozen House Ratings Shift in California Following Approval of New Dem Map By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats turned in an impressive showing in last night’s elections, and 2025 still feels a lot like 2017 did.

— Loudoun County, Virginia, whose early reporting suggested Donald Trump was on the way to a significant national win in 2024, pointed the way to Abigail Spanberger’s (D) big gubernatorial win and Jay Jones’s (D) attorney general victory.

— Following the passage of Proposition 50 in California, we are making a dozen House rating changes, all but one in favor of Democrats.

— The changes come fairly close to restoring the status quo prior to the start of redistricting, but there are many more dominoes to fall on the gerrymandering front.

Notes on the State of Politics: MN-SEN to Likely Democratic; Watching Voter Dropoff in VA-AG Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans have a couple of open-seat Senate targets in Kamala Harris-won New Hampshire and Minnesota.

— History suggests Democrats should be able to hold both races, but Minnesota has clearly become a less attractive target for Republicans than New Hampshire.

— In Virginia’s closely-watched attorney general race, we are curious to see how many voters skip the AG contest entirely. Typically, the amount of dropoff from the gubernatorial race to the AG race is quite low.

Midway to the Midterm: The Imperfect Bellwethers of New Jersey and Virginia By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— It will be very tempting to use the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as predictors for next year’s midterms.

— Sometimes these races do provide a preview of the following year, but there are enough instances where they do not that we would urge caution against overinterpreting the results.

— One key factor is that the political situation could just be different in the midterm year than it is in the gubernatorial year, something we arguably saw as recently as 2021 and 2022, the most recent comparable cycle.

— Another confounding factor is that New Jersey and Virginia are both more Democratic than the nation at the federal level, which was not consistently the case until recently.

The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As the post-Labor Day sprint to the November gubernatorial races begins, we are upgrading Democrats in Virginia, moving that race to Likely Democratic. New Jersey remains as Leans Democratic.

— For the 2026 races, open seats in Iowa and Maine get more competitive in our ratings.

— Republicans should be able to easily win a new seat in Missouri as the result of a new proposed gerrymander, the latest development in the fast-moving redistricting wars.