Commentary By Kyle Kondik

It Wouldn’t Take Much for 2026 to be a Big Year for House Incumbent Primary Defeats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The primary season begins Tuesday night, and several sitting House members are facing credible primary opposition.

— Typically, only a handful of House incumbents lose renomination in a given year.

— In the postwar era, only about an average of 6.5 incumbents have lost renomination each cycle, and the renomination rate for House incumbents who seek another term is greater than 98%.

— However, that also means that it would not take many incumbent losses for 2026 to rank as a big year, historically, for incumbent primary defeats.

A Flood of Open House Seats—But Not Competitive Open Seats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— More than 50 members of the U.S. House of Representatives are not seeking another term in the House this year.

— The number of incumbents running again is going to be one of the lowest totals in any House election cycle since World War II.

— However, the vast majority of these retirements don’t mean anything for the November election because they are coming in safe seats.

— The open seats, collectively, feature a smaller share of truly competitive seats than the House as a whole does.

How Redistricting Scrambled the Crossover District List—and How It Could be Scrambled Even More By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the 2024 election, just 16 congressional districts voted differently for president and for U.S. House. Democratic House candidates carried 13 Donald Trump-won districts, and Republican House candidates carried 3 Kamala Harris-won districts.

— Redistricting, however, has altered the picture and expanded the number of crossover districts. Based on the maps in place now, there are 24 crossover districts: 16 Trump-district Democrats and 8 Harris-district Republicans.

— Many of these newly-created seats are designed to flip to the party that won the district for president. If 2026 is like 2018, Democrats may have a more lopsided number of crossover districts than they did in 2024.

— Further redistricting moves in states like Florida, Maryland, New York, and Virginia could expand the number of crossover seats.

The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.

— President Trump did well among young people and nonwhite voters in 2024 for a Republican, but he has seen his approval erode with those voters. However, that doesn’t have as much of a bearing on the Senate map, with Democrats having to compete in whiter states like Iowa and Ohio.

— Democrats do get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia, as Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D) race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Low Gas Prices Don’t Seem to be Moving the Needle for Trump—and He’s No Exception Historically By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The price of a gallon of gasoline in President Trump’s first year in office has been relatively low, with gas recently dipping under $3 a gallon on average for the first time in half a decade, when the pandemic was having a major effect on the economy and society at large.

— That said, Trump’s overall approval rating remains underwater, and it is weaker now than it was a few months ago. Trump’s approval numbers on the economy and inflation—the latter of which would seem to be most connected to the price of gasoline—are weaker than his overall approval.

— There is some connection, historically, between gas prices and presidential approval, but that connection has been weaker lately.

Dem Wave Hits Virginia, New Jersey, and Elsewhere; a Dozen House Ratings Shift in California Following Approval of New Dem Map By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats turned in an impressive showing in last night’s elections, and 2025 still feels a lot like 2017 did.

— Loudoun County, Virginia, whose early reporting suggested Donald Trump was on the way to a significant national win in 2024, pointed the way to Abigail Spanberger’s (D) big gubernatorial win and Jay Jones’s (D) attorney general victory.

— Following the passage of Proposition 50 in California, we are making a dozen House rating changes, all but one in favor of Democrats.

— The changes come fairly close to restoring the status quo prior to the start of redistricting, but there are many more dominoes to fall on the gerrymandering front.

Notes on the State of Politics: MN-SEN to Likely Democratic; Watching Voter Dropoff in VA-AG Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans have a couple of open-seat Senate targets in Kamala Harris-won New Hampshire and Minnesota.

— History suggests Democrats should be able to hold both races, but Minnesota has clearly become a less attractive target for Republicans than New Hampshire.

— In Virginia’s closely-watched attorney general race, we are curious to see how many voters skip the AG contest entirely. Typically, the amount of dropoff from the gubernatorial race to the AG race is quite low.

Midway to the Midterm: The Imperfect Bellwethers of New Jersey and Virginia By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— It will be very tempting to use the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as predictors for next year’s midterms.

— Sometimes these races do provide a preview of the following year, but there are enough instances where they do not that we would urge caution against overinterpreting the results.

— One key factor is that the political situation could just be different in the midterm year than it is in the gubernatorial year, something we arguably saw as recently as 2021 and 2022, the most recent comparable cycle.

— Another confounding factor is that New Jersey and Virginia are both more Democratic than the nation at the federal level, which was not consistently the case until recently.

The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As the post-Labor Day sprint to the November gubernatorial races begins, we are upgrading Democrats in Virginia, moving that race to Likely Democratic. New Jersey remains as Leans Democratic.

— For the 2026 races, open seats in Iowa and Maine get more competitive in our ratings.

— Republicans should be able to easily win a new seat in Missouri as the result of a new proposed gerrymander, the latest development in the fast-moving redistricting wars.

Texas Republicans Aim for Five-Seat Gain in New Proposed Gerrymander By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A much-anticipated draft of a new Republican gerrymander of Texas emerged Wednesday morning.

— The map is designed to allow Republicans to win five new seats in Texas, which would have the effect of pushing their edge in the state delegation from 25-13 at full strength to 30-8.

— Not all the newly-drawn seats are guaranteed Republican pickups, though.

— We offer tentative possible ratings of the new map’s 38 districts below, although without knowing if the map will be enacted under this form (or at all), we are not actually making any rating changes today.

As Redistricting War Looms, Republicans Have More Plausible Gerrymandering Targets than Democrats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— President Trump pushing Texas Republicans to squeeze more seats out of the Lone Star State has led to the possibility of other states on both sides trying to draw new maps.

— California stands out as a state where Democrats could potentially get several extra seats through a gerrymander, but their path toward doing so is much more complicated than the Republican path in Texas.

— Looking across the entire country, Republicans appear to have easier opportunities for drawing new gerrymanders than Democrats. Ohio was already set to likely produce a better map for Republicans, and there are other options too.

— In states where Democrats control the state government and might want to draw themselves additional seats, there are often roadblocks that don’t exist in Republican-leaning states.

Friends, Neighbors, and Unfriendly Neighbors in Virginia’s Wild Democratic Statewide Primaries By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In a highly competitive Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) was powered by strength in her home turf in greater Richmond, while a very poor showing in the city where he was recently mayor, Richmond, cost Levar Stoney (D) dearly.

— Meanwhile, former state Del. Jay Jones (D) won a narrow victory of his own in the attorney general primary by building on his coalition from his unsuccessful run four years ago.

— Looking ahead to the fall, there is still ticket-splitting among the three statewide elections in Virginia, but that ticket-splitting has generally been on the decline.

— Virginia will also elect all 100 members of the state House of Delegates this fall, where Democrats already hold a narrow majority.

The House: A Big Sort Lowers the Odds of a Big Wave By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Two of the three major ingredients that went into the huge numerical House gains that the winning side made in the 2010 and 2018 midterms are not present for Democrats in 2026.

— One of those, however, is that the opposition party started those cycles with far fewer seats than the Democrats hold now, which is hardly a bad thing for them. But that should also inform our expectations about the size of the gain Democrats could make in 2026 and how it would compare to midterm history.

— The other is that the House is much more sorted along partisan lines now than it was in either 2010 or even 2018, meaning that the party control of House seats is better aligned with how districts vote at the presidential level. This level of sorting also likely helps explain why Republicans in 2022 were able to flip the House, but only made modest gains in doing so—and also why Republicans can plausibly argue that they could hold onto the House next year.

— If the House remains so sorted along presidential voting lines, it stands to reason that large numerical swings in House seats would become rarer, even as the House majority itself would often be up for grabs.

How the New Catalist Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

– A new report from the Democratic data firm Catalist provides a fresh look at the 2024 presidential election results.

– There are key differences among the two Election Night exit polls, from Edison Research and from VoteCast, and the Catalist report, but they by and large tell a similar story about the election.

– All three sources show Trump making big improvements compared to 2020 among young and nonwhite voters.

Notes on the State of the Senate: The Post-Kemp Battlefield By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).

— Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.

— Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.

— While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.

— Republicans remain favored to retain control of the Senate in 2026, and we are not changing any ratings in this update.

The Governors, Part Two: Familiar Battlegrounds Dot 2026 Map, but Watch for Upsets in Open Seats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Many of 2024’s top presidential battlegrounds will feature high-profile gubernatorial elections in 2026.

— Arizona and Michigan start as the only two Toss-ups in our initial ratings.

— Be on the lookout for upsets thanks to the high number of open seats, perhaps coming from the long list of races that start rated as Likely for one side or the other.

The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024.

— Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment. Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so. Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.

— Our initial House ratings reflect a small House map, with Democrats narrowly ahead 209-207 in the seats that at least lean to one party or the other, with 19 Toss-ups.

Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— There are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections.

— The turnout of eligible voters in midterms is consistently lower than the turnout in the most recent presidential election.

— Midterm electorates are typically older, whiter, and more educated than presidential electorates.

— The non-presidential party usually wins a higher share of the two-party House vote in the midterm than that party did in the preceding presidential election.

Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.

— Over 13 general election midterms held during the last half-century, just an average of 3 non-presidential party House members have lost per midterm.

— Redistricting as well as special election winners losing their subsequent general election inflate that total. Otherwise, a variety of other factors—including scandal, strong challengers, political circumstances, and more—contributed to these relatively rare losses.

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.

— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.

— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.