Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: MN-SEN to Likely Democratic; Watching Voter Dropoff in VA-AG Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans have a couple of open-seat Senate targets in Kamala Harris-won New Hampshire and Minnesota.

— History suggests Democrats should be able to hold both races, but Minnesota has clearly become a less attractive target for Republicans than New Hampshire.

— In Virginia’s closely-watched attorney general race, we are curious to see how many voters skip the AG contest entirely. Typically, the amount of dropoff from the gubernatorial race to the AG race is quite low.

Midway to the Midterm: The Imperfect Bellwethers of New Jersey and Virginia By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— It will be very tempting to use the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as predictors for next year’s midterms.

— Sometimes these races do provide a preview of the following year, but there are enough instances where they do not that we would urge caution against overinterpreting the results.

— One key factor is that the political situation could just be different in the midterm year than it is in the gubernatorial year, something we arguably saw as recently as 2021 and 2022, the most recent comparable cycle.

— Another confounding factor is that New Jersey and Virginia are both more Democratic than the nation at the federal level, which was not consistently the case until recently.

The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As the post-Labor Day sprint to the November gubernatorial races begins, we are upgrading Democrats in Virginia, moving that race to Likely Democratic. New Jersey remains as Leans Democratic.

— For the 2026 races, open seats in Iowa and Maine get more competitive in our ratings.

— Republicans should be able to easily win a new seat in Missouri as the result of a new proposed gerrymander, the latest development in the fast-moving redistricting wars.

Texas Republicans Aim for Five-Seat Gain in New Proposed Gerrymander By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A much-anticipated draft of a new Republican gerrymander of Texas emerged Wednesday morning.

— The map is designed to allow Republicans to win five new seats in Texas, which would have the effect of pushing their edge in the state delegation from 25-13 at full strength to 30-8.

— Not all the newly-drawn seats are guaranteed Republican pickups, though.

— We offer tentative possible ratings of the new map’s 38 districts below, although without knowing if the map will be enacted under this form (or at all), we are not actually making any rating changes today.

As Redistricting War Looms, Republicans Have More Plausible Gerrymandering Targets than Democrats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— President Trump pushing Texas Republicans to squeeze more seats out of the Lone Star State has led to the possibility of other states on both sides trying to draw new maps.

— California stands out as a state where Democrats could potentially get several extra seats through a gerrymander, but their path toward doing so is much more complicated than the Republican path in Texas.

— Looking across the entire country, Republicans appear to have easier opportunities for drawing new gerrymanders than Democrats. Ohio was already set to likely produce a better map for Republicans, and there are other options too.

— In states where Democrats control the state government and might want to draw themselves additional seats, there are often roadblocks that don’t exist in Republican-leaning states.

Friends, Neighbors, and Unfriendly Neighbors in Virginia’s Wild Democratic Statewide Primaries By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In a highly competitive Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) was powered by strength in her home turf in greater Richmond, while a very poor showing in the city where he was recently mayor, Richmond, cost Levar Stoney (D) dearly.

— Meanwhile, former state Del. Jay Jones (D) won a narrow victory of his own in the attorney general primary by building on his coalition from his unsuccessful run four years ago.

— Looking ahead to the fall, there is still ticket-splitting among the three statewide elections in Virginia, but that ticket-splitting has generally been on the decline.

— Virginia will also elect all 100 members of the state House of Delegates this fall, where Democrats already hold a narrow majority.

The House: A Big Sort Lowers the Odds of a Big Wave By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Two of the three major ingredients that went into the huge numerical House gains that the winning side made in the 2010 and 2018 midterms are not present for Democrats in 2026.

— One of those, however, is that the opposition party started those cycles with far fewer seats than the Democrats hold now, which is hardly a bad thing for them. But that should also inform our expectations about the size of the gain Democrats could make in 2026 and how it would compare to midterm history.

— The other is that the House is much more sorted along partisan lines now than it was in either 2010 or even 2018, meaning that the party control of House seats is better aligned with how districts vote at the presidential level. This level of sorting also likely helps explain why Republicans in 2022 were able to flip the House, but only made modest gains in doing so—and also why Republicans can plausibly argue that they could hold onto the House next year.

— If the House remains so sorted along presidential voting lines, it stands to reason that large numerical swings in House seats would become rarer, even as the House majority itself would often be up for grabs.

How the New Catalist Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

– A new report from the Democratic data firm Catalist provides a fresh look at the 2024 presidential election results.

– There are key differences among the two Election Night exit polls, from Edison Research and from VoteCast, and the Catalist report, but they by and large tell a similar story about the election.

– All three sources show Trump making big improvements compared to 2020 among young and nonwhite voters.

Notes on the State of the Senate: The Post-Kemp Battlefield By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Republicans missed out on a top recruiting target earlier this week, as Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) decided not to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).

— Georgia remains a Toss-up in our ratings even as Ossoff’s reelection path got clearer.

— Another place where Democrats are playing defense, Michigan, remains a Toss-up, while a couple of other open Democratic seats in Democratic-leaning states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, are developing better for Democrats than Republicans.

— While there have already been many key developments in the race for the Senate in 2026, history shows that key candidate decisions may still be months away in some places.

— Republicans remain favored to retain control of the Senate in 2026, and we are not changing any ratings in this update.

The Governors, Part Two: Familiar Battlegrounds Dot 2026 Map, but Watch for Upsets in Open Seats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Many of 2024’s top presidential battlegrounds will feature high-profile gubernatorial elections in 2026.

— Arizona and Michigan start as the only two Toss-ups in our initial ratings.

— Be on the lookout for upsets thanks to the high number of open seats, perhaps coming from the long list of races that start rated as Likely for one side or the other.

The House: Democrats Favored on What Starts as a Small Battlefield By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024.

— Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment. Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so. Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.

— Our initial House ratings reflect a small House map, with Democrats narrowly ahead 209-207 in the seats that at least lean to one party or the other, with 19 Toss-ups.

Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— There are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections.

— The turnout of eligible voters in midterms is consistently lower than the turnout in the most recent presidential election.

— Midterm electorates are typically older, whiter, and more educated than presidential electorates.

— The non-presidential party usually wins a higher share of the two-party House vote in the midterm than that party did in the preceding presidential election.

Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.

— Over 13 general election midterms held during the last half-century, just an average of 3 non-presidential party House members have lost per midterm.

— Redistricting as well as special election winners losing their subsequent general election inflate that total. Otherwise, a variety of other factors—including scandal, strong challengers, political circumstances, and more—contributed to these relatively rare losses.

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.

— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.

— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.

Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.

— Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.

— We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.

— If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.

The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same historically-low total as 2020.

— But there are 13 Democrats in Donald Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Kamala Harris-won districts.

How the Other Half Votes: The Big Counties Versus the Rest of the Country in 2024 By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While the nation has more than 3,100 counties, just about 150 of them cast roughly half of all presidential votes.

— In the Trump era, the gap between the biggest counties and the rest of the country is larger than it was previously, although the overall difference contracted slightly in both 2020 and then 2024 after an initial large widening in 2016.

— In improving his margin in the national popular vote by about 6 points from 2020, Donald Trump ran further ahead of his 2020 margin in the nation’s most vote-rich counties than he did in the rest of the country.

The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from a group of 20 states that have consistently voted Republican for president since at least the 2000 election.

— A quarter-century ago, Democrats held nearly a third of the Senate seats from these 20 states. But that tally was down to just 2 leading into this election, and Republican victories in Montana and West Virginia reduced it to 0.

— Additionally, 5 other states backed a Democratic presidential candidate at least once this century but voted for Donald Trump in all 3 of his elections. Republicans now hold all of the Senate seats in these states as well.

— In total, these 25 states hold half the Senate seats. Realistically, Democrats can’t win future Senate majorities without making at least some inroads back into this now fully Republican bloc of states.

The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— After the election, many took note of some seemingly unusual patterns in the presidential and Senate voting. Some winning Democrats in states that voted for Donald Trump, for instance, received fewer total votes than Kamala Harris, but still won while Harris lost.

— Some voters likely cast votes just in the presidential race, meaning that there were fewer votes cast in a state’s Senate contest compared to its presidential contest.

— However, there is nothing unusual about this compared to recent history. Senate races almost always have fewer votes cast than presidential races in presidential years.

— In fact, the average size of the Senate “undervote” this year was smaller than many other recent cycles.

— The third party vote was generally larger in key Senate races than in the presidential race, which likely also contributed to the outcomes in certain states. But a higher third-party vote for Senate is also not unusual—it was a feature of some of 2020’s closest Senate races, too.

Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups.

— Just like in the presidential race, there’s still no favorite in the House.

— We also are moving Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-NE) race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help her in her contest against independent Dan Osborn.