Why Romney Remains Compelling
A Commentary by Douglas Schoen
According to Real Clear Politics, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney continues to enjoy a solid double digit lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He also holds a more narrow lead in South Carolina and Michigan and appears to be in a statistical tie in Nevada.
This suggests to me that if he is able to hold on and win the Iowa caucuses his path to the nomination seems clear and direct, for a number of straightforward reasons.
First, other than Mike Huckabee, Romney is the only candidate with momentum in Iowa. Guiliani is not a factor here, Fred Thompson has been fading, and John McCain continues to lack traction.
Dick Morris correctly points out that Mike Huckabee appears to have generated some enthusiasm but he seems to have stalled in the mid-teens and will be vulnerable should Ron Paul's million dollar plus media buy in the state generate any considerable support for the Texas Congressman.
Should Romney win Iowa, even narrowly, he will almost certainly sweep through New Hampshire. And should that happen the likelihood is very high he will take the next three states easily.
Should Romney win 5 of the first 5 states, or even 4 or the first 5 states the attention he will generate and the support he will win cannot be overestimated.
It is hard to imagine Rudy Guiliani maintaining his support in the large states that come thereafter like Florida, California, and Illinois.
To be sure, none of this is locked in stone, but given the transformative effect Iowa had on the Democratic side in 2004, I wouldn't bet against Mitt Romney.
Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.
Schoen was President Bill Clinton's research and strategic consultant during the 1996 reelection campaign.
Related Articles
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.
