Trumpmentum!

With presidential primary season beginning in just a few weeks, former President Donald Trump has the momentum and is running away from the field of second place contenders.

The rest of the GOP primary field is jockeying for second place, and perhaps a better shot at the nomination in 2028 when Trump is retired from politics.

The ruling class, also known as the establishment or donor class, is displeased over the state of the GOP primaries. One of the ruling class mouthpieces, the Wall Street Journal, is quite worried. From a recent op-ed: 

“The pundits are saying that Donald Trump emerged unscathed from Wednesday night’s debate because only Chris Christie attacked him as a would-be dictator. But that misses something important about what happened on stage. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis warned GOP voters that Mr. Trump is likely to fail in a second term and explained why – and the best evidence is the record of his first term.”

They are convinced Trump would fail in a second term because he failed in his first term. How are Trump’s achievements considered failures?

Trump presided over a massive economic boom with low unemployment, wage growth not just for the laptop class but for all workers, rich and poor, black and white. Add middle class tax relief, massive deregulation, energy independence, fair trade deals, and Middle East peace with the Abraham Accords.

He remade the federal judiciary including three constitutionalist Supreme Court justices, secured the border, rebuilt the military and kept America out of any foreign wars, supported religious liberty and pushed back against socialism and wokeism.

Once upon a time, the WSJ embraced such conservative policies, but now prefers economic chaos, open borders, and endless wars, all benefiting the donor class rather than middle class American voters.

What do the voters say?

Do they agree with the WSJ that a second Trump term would be a dictatorship and a mess of incompetence? Or do voters believe the last three years should be tossed in the Jimmy Carter memorial trash bin of history come November?

Rasmussen Reports just released a poll showing, “Former President Donald Trump now has a double-digit lead for 2024, as support for re-electing President Joe Biden has faded in the past month.”

Specifically, “In a two-way contest between Biden and Trump, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump and 38% would vote for Biden. Another 10% say they’d vote for some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.”

Going further, “This is a reversal of our November survey, when Biden led by four points, with 46% to Trump’s 42%. The new survey also shows stronger support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”

My, how things have changed in the past few months. RFK Jr, as a liberal Democrat, will take more votes from Biden than from Trump.

Are these numbers a fluke? What do other polls say about the upcoming presidential election?

The Real Clear Politics poll average for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination places Trump at 60%, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the low teens, the others in low single digits. Trump would describe his lead as “yuge.”

DeSantis and Haley have had months to get their message out. Fox News has given both ample airtime, genuflecting when interviewing either of them. If their messages resonated with voters, they would be polling higher than 12%. The Koch Brothers and Mitt Romney may like their message, but Joe the plumber does not.

Another way of gauging voter sentiment is the Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll, which as of December 14 shows Trump four years ago at 49% total approval, compared with Biden at 42% total approval, reflecting comparable points in their respective presidencies.

Rasmussen Reports also found that among likely U.S. voters that only 30% think the country is headed in the right direction compared to 64% who believe America is headed down the wrong track. Who is the conductor of the American train cruising down the wrong track? Joe Biden.

CNN piles on to the Biden trainwreck. “CNN Polls: Trump leads Biden in Michigan and Georgia as broad majorities hold negative views of the current president.” In Georgia, Trump leads Biden 49% to 44 %. In Michigan Trump’s lead is 50% to 40%.

It will be challenging for those states to “find” enough ballots to overcome such a lead after they halt vote counting at 10 PM on election night to assess Biden’s deficit and figure out a way to reverse that by the time ballot counting resumes the next morning.

Wait, could there be election cheating? Am I an election denier? A conspiracy theorist? Let’s ask voters about election cheating.

Rasmussen Reports did just that and found, “More than 20% of voters who used mail-in ballots in 2020 admit they participated in at least one form of election fraud.” How many more did not admit it? So much for the 2020 election being the “most secure in history”.

Both the Republican and Democrat parties have morphed into a single uni-party with little difference, except on the fringes of each party. Voters see this and through Trump are saying enough.

Hence the “Trumpmentum.” Voters say “Forget the RNC or DNC,” and find us a candidate who wants to focus on America rather than power and money.

To paraphrase what James Carville once said about the economy, for this election, “It’s the voters stupid.” How refreshing if the GOP for once would listen and respect its voters, rather than heaping scorn and ridicule on the base of their party.

Brian C Joondeph, MD, is a physician and writer.

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