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Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 39%, Santorum 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 7%

The Arizona Republican Primary race has tightened dramatically over the past two weeks, but former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains in first place with Rick Santorum close behind. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney with 39% support to Santorum’s 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant third with 15% of the vote, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at seven percent (7%). Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Santorum 39%, Romney 27%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 10%

Follow the bouncing ball. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has now bounced to a 12-point lead over Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Santorum with 39% support to the former Massachusetts governor’s 27%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich follows from a distance with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

34% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-four percent (34%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, February 12.

The latest finding is up five points from a week ago and the highest level of optimism since April 2010. From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has climbed steadily since then.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 6-12, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Santorum 35%, Romney 32%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, following his wins last week in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, has now jumped ahead of Mitt Romney in Michigan's Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 35% of the vote to Romney’s 32%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 13% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 11%. Only one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Mack (R) 41%, Nelson (D) 41%

Republican Congressman Connie Mack now runs dead even with incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in Florida’s 2012 U.S. Senate race. But Nelson outdistances two other potential GOP challengers, former Senator George LeMieux and businessman Mike McCalister.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Mack and Nelson earning 41% support each. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, and 12% remain undecided at this early stage. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

In Rasmussen Reports’ first survey of the Florida Senate race last November, Mack, a congressman from the Fort Myers/Naples area, posted a modest 43% to 39% lead over Nelson, a member of the Senate since 2000 when he won the election to fill the seat vacated by Mack’s father.

Nelson posts at 45% to 35% lead over LeMieux, who then-Governor Charlie Crist named to the Senate in September 2009 to complete the term of Senator Mel Martinez who resigned from office early. LeMieux chose not to seek a full Senate term in the 2010 elections because of Crist’s decision to run. Crist was defeated by Marco Rubio. Given a Nelson-LeMieux matchup, five percent (5%) of Florida voters again prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

Nelson holds a narrower lead – 43% to 37% - over McCalister, a political newcomer. Five percent (5%) favor some other candidate in the contest, and 15% are undecided.

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 41%

For the second week in a row, Republicans hold a two-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 12. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 41% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from February 6-12, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida: Obama Nearly Tied With Santorum, Ahead of Romney

In Florida as in Ohio and among voters nationally, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum now runs slightly stronger against President Obama than Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. Obama is essentially even with Santorum in the Sunshine State but leads Romney by three points. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Obama earning 47% support to Santorum's 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on February 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Congressional Leaders Are Slightly Less Disliked This Month

Favorability ratings for the top four congressional leaders have improved slightly from last month’s all-time lows but are still far from positive.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that House Speaker John Boehner is viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 43%. His overall favorable rating is virtually unchanged from last month, but his unfavorables are down 15 points.  The new findings include Very Favorable opinions from nine percent (9%) and Very Unfavorable marks from 23%. Another 23% still don’t know enough about the Ohio Republican to venture any kind of opinion.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama Leads Romney, Tied with Santorum

President Obama runs slightly ahead of Mitt Romney and dead even with Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2012 look at the key battleground state of Ohio.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 45% support to Romney’s 41%. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

29% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, February 5.

The latest finding shows no change from the previous week, the highest level of optimism measured in weekly tracking since May of last year.  From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has climbed steadily since then.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 30-February 5, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 34%, Gingrich 27%, Santorum 18%, Paul 11%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney now holds a seven-point lead over Newt Gingrich to reclaim the lead in the national race for the Republican presidential nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney with 34% support to Gingrich’s 27%.  Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania gets 18% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 11%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 41%

Republicans have regained the lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 5. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 41% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from January 30-February 5, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

38% Say Next President Very Likely To Be Republican, 5% Say Not At All Likely

More voters think President Obama is governing in a partisan fashion than have felt that way in over a year of regular surveying. Voters are more confident, too, that the next president is likely to be a Republican than at any time in Obama's presidency to date.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 33% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the president is governing in a bipartisan fashion. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he is acting like a partisan Democrat, up four points from November and the highest finding since early December 2010. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This national survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 31-February 1, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 48%, Gingrich 24%, Santorum 13%, Paul 6%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a big lead over his rivals in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican primary race in Arizona. The state's Republicans vote on February 28. A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 48% support, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in a distant second with 24%. Thirteen percent (13%) prefer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and six percent (6%) support Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

29% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, Jan. 29.  That’s the highest level of optimism measured in weekly tracking since May of last year.

The latest finding is up three points from the previous week. From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has steadily climbed since then.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 23-29, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan Trends: The Number of Democrats Falls To New Low

The number of Republicans in the country inched up half a percentage point in January, while the number of Democrats dipped to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

During January, 35.9% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.4% in December and the highest number of Republicans measured since December 2010.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

5% Say Congress Doing Good or Excellent Job

Positive ratings for Congress remain at an all-time low, and a plurality of voters continues to believe most members of Congress are corrupt.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only five percent (5%) of Likely U.S. Voters rate the job Congress is doing as good or excellent.  Seventy percent (70%) view Congress’ job performance as poor, just a point lower than the highest level ever measured.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41%, Republicans 40%

For the first time in roughly two-and-a-half years, Democrats lead Republicans on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 29.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Republican instead.

Voters Still Trust GOP More on Economy

Voters continue to trust Republicans more than Democrats on the number one issue of the economy, but they now trust Democrats at least slightly more on five of the 10 most important issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. The two parties are nearly tied on five of the 10, though. This is the first survey since May 2009 in which the GOP doesn't have an edge on a majority of the issues.

The latest national telephone survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters trust the GOP more when it comes to handling the economy, while 40% have more faith in President Obama's party. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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Two national surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on January 23-24 & 25-26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida GOP Primary: Romney 39%, Gingrich 31%, Santorum 12%, Paul 9%

Mitt Romney has jumped back ahead in the fevered Florida Republican Primary race with his support back to where it was before Newt Gingrich’s big win Saturday in South Carolina.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%). Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Florida survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.