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Obama Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states. 

Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 39%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 10%

Mitt Romney still holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum among Republicans nationwide, although the gap between the two is slightly narrower following Super Tuesday’s mixed signals. But more GOP voters than ever now expect Romney to be the party’s nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney ahead of Santorum by 12 points – 39% to 27%. That’s a little tighter than it was a week ago when Romney led the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania by 16 – 40% to 24%. It was Romney's biggest lead and the highest level of support earned by any GOP candidate in regular surveying of the race. But two weeks before that, Santorum was up by 12 points – 39% to 27%.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Are Less Sure Next President Will Be A Republican

Voters are less convinced that President Obama will be succeeded by a Republican.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters still think it it at least somewhat likely that the next president after Obama will be a Republican, including 34% who say it is Very Likely. But the overall finding is down from 66% in early February and the first time it's fallen out of the 60s since December 2009.  That belief ran as high as 71% in December 2010.

Just 28% say a Republican is unlikely to follow Obama, but that includes only five percent (5%) who feel it's Not At All Likely. Still, the overall level of skepticism has been that high only one other time - last July - since January 2010. It’s important to note that the question does not specify whether the “next” president will be elected in 2012 or 2016.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This national survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

30% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 4.

The latest finding continues the downward trend from 34% three weeks earlier, the highest level of optimism since April 2010. A week ago, 32% said the country is moving in the right direction.  From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. The number began climbing in mid-December along with gains in economic confidence but apparently peaked the week ending February 12.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 27-March 4, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nebraska: Romney 52%, Obama 35%

The top two Republican presidential hopefuls hold double-digit leads over President Obama in Nebraska, a state which has gone for the GOP candidate in every presidential election but one since 1940.

The first Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Cornhusker State shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president by 17 points - 52% to 35%. Ten percent (10%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Nebraska survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted March 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 41%

Republicans hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 26. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by just one point.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from February 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts: Obama 55%, Romney 38%

Mitt Romney trails President Obama in a head-to-head matchup in Massachusetts, and voters in the Bay State have mixed feelings about their former governor who now wants to sit in the White House.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 55% support to Romney’s 38%.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Massachusetts survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Economy Still Number One on Voters' Minds

The economy remains far and away the most important thing on voters' minds this election season on a list of 10 key issues regularly surveyed by Rasmussen Reports.

A new national telephone survey finds that 82% of Likely U.S. Voters see the economy as a Very Important issue in terms of how they will vote in the next congressional election. That's up two points from  December, but generally consistent with findings since August 2007. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on February 22-23 and 26-27, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

10% Now Say Congress Doing A Good or Excellent Job

The number of voters who give Congress favorable marks for its job performance has reached double digits for the first time in nearly a year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 10% of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent. That's up from five percent (5%) last month and the highest positive finding since last March. But 63% still think Congress is doing a poor job, although that down from 70% a month ago.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 28-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 40%, Santorum 24%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, coming off his primary wins in Arizona and Michigan, has jumped to a 16-point lead over Rick Santorum in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney with 40% support to 24% for the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks ago, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, closely followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 12%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. The new findings mark virtually no change in national support for Gingrich and Paul. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan Trends: GOP Holds Steady, Democrats Fall To New Low

The number of Republicans in the country was virtually unchanged in February, while the number of Democrats fell to a new low for the third month in a row. During February, 36.0% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.9% in January and the highest number of Republicans measured since December 2010.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

32% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, February 26.

The latest finding is up one point from a week ago but down two points from two weeks ago, the highest level of optimism since April 2010. From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has climbed steadily since then.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Leads Romney, Santorum In Wisconsin

President Obama holds modest leads over the top two Republican presidential hopefuls in Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the Badger State finds Obama ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 47% to 42%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a matchup with former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Obama leads 46% to 41% among Wisconsin voters. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided.

This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 50%, Baldwin (D) 36%

Former Governor Tommy Thompson continues to be the strongest Republican contender for Wisconsin’s open U.S. Senate seat, now posting a double-digit lead over Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows Thompson with 50% support to Baldwin’s 36%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 39%

Republicans hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 26. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by just one point.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from February 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

52% Say U.S. Safer Today Than Before 9/11

Fewer voters than ever think the United States is a more dangerous place today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. At the same time, most believe the United States is winning the war on terror.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters believe America is safer than it was before those attacks. Only 26% disagree and think the country is not as safe today. That's down eight points from last month and the lowest finding since regular surveying began on the question in November 2006. Twenty-two percent (22%) still are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama, Romney Nearly Tied in Pennsylvania, Santorum Trails

Mitt Romney runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, but Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from the Keystone State, trails the incumbent by six points. Most voters in the state disapprove of the job the president is doing.

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican presidential nominee, Obama leads 45% to 44%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Pennsylvania survey of 438 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 47%, Tester (D) 44%

Democratic incumbent Jon Tester runs slightly behind his leading Republican challenger in his bid for reelection in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg earning 47% support to Tester’s 44% in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at this contest.  Four percent (4%) prefers some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Obama Leads Romney, Santorum in Virginia

President Obama now holds single-digit leads over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum in hypothetical matchups in the key battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Obama drawing 49% support to Romney's 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
 

With Santorum as the Republican nominee, Obama holds a 51% to 43% lead. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, February 19.

The latest finding is down three points from a week ago, which showed the highest level of optimism since April 2010. From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has climbed steadily since then.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 13-19, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.