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Montana: Romney, Santorum Still Lead Obama

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum continue to lead President Obama in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in Montana, a state last won by a Democratic presidential candidate 20 years ago.

Romney receives 49% support from Likely Voters in the Treasure State to Obama’s 40%. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey finds that nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Santorum leads the president 48% to 41% among Montana voters. Eight percent (8%) favor another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on April 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 46%, Wilson (R) 42%

The U.S. Senate race in New Mexico remains tight between former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and two potential Democratic opponents.

A statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich picking up 46% of the vote against Wilson who draws 42% support. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 47%, Tester (D) 44%

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg still maintains a very narrow advantage over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s closely contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Montana Voters shows Rehberg with 47% support to Tester’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and three percent are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Dips Following Recent High

After reaching a three-year high in February, the Rasmussen Employment Index slipped four points in March to 83.5

Twenty-two percent (22%) of working Americans in March reported that their firms are hiring while 20% report layoffs. The hiring number is down one point from February.

Generally speaking, a decrease in the Rasmussen Employment Index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be weaker than the prior months. The Index measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market and is reported each month.

The survey of 8,987 working Americans was conducted in March 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Full-Month Approval Index Slips in March

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, approval of the president has stayed within the narrow two-point range it has been in for all of 2012.

In March, 26% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, showing no change since February but up two points from January. The number who Strongly Disapproved of the job Obama is doing was at 41% in March, up two points from last month.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

6% Rate Congress’ Job Performance As Good or Excellent

Positive ratings for Congress are back in the single digits where they have been for the past year.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that six percent (6%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress’ performance as good or excellent.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) think Congress is doing a poor job.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 39%

Republicans hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, April 1. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. The week before, the Republican led by five points, 43% to 38%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 26-April 1, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 36.4% Democrats 33.4%

The number of Democrats in the United States rebounded in March after falling to a record low in February. However, for the fourth consecutive month, more people consider themselves Republicans than Democrats.

During March, 36.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans while 33.4% were Democrats. For the GOP, that’s a gain of 0.4% from a month ago. Democrats gained a full percentage point from February.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

New High: 61% See Repeal of Health Care Law As Likely

Following a week of highly-publicized hearings before the U.S. Supreme Court on the constitutionality of President Obama's health care law, most voters continue to favor repeal of the law, and more than ever think it’s likely to be repealed.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 41% who Strongly Favor it.  Forty percent (40%) are at least somewhat opposed to repeal, with 25% who are Strongly Opposed.  Since the law’s passage by Congress in March 2010, most voters have favored repeal in virtually every survey, with support running as high as 62%. Opposition to repeal has ranged from 32% to 44%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 31-April 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

49% Trust Republicans on Economy, 38% Trust Democrats More

As they have for nearly three years now, voters trust Republicans more than Democrats when it comes to handling the economy, by far  the top issue on a list of 10 regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. They put slightly more trust in Democrats on health care, the second most important issue. 

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Likely U.S. Voters now trust the GOP with economic issues, while 38% trust the Democrats more. That's the highest level of confidence in the Republicans since last October. In January, Republicans held a 47% to 40% edge on the economy. They've been trusted more than Democrats on this issue since early June 2009. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Two national surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on March 25-26 & 27-28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Still Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama remains slightly ahead of the Republican front-runners in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying finds that Obama picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. That's little changed from a week ago when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 24-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin: Obama Grows Lead Over GOP Hopefuls

President Obama is now above the 50% mark in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups with Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in Wisconsin. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama earning 52% support to Romney’s 41%.  Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 25.

The latest finding is down two points from the previous survey and down five points from a recent high of 34% measured in early February.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 19-25, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Senate: Thompson (R) 48%, Baldwin (D) 44%

The race for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat between top Republican contender Tommy Thompson and Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has grown tighter over the last month. Baldwin now leads two other Republican hopefuls in the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Wisconsin shows former Governor Thompson with 48% support to Baldwin’s 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama Takes Bigger Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama has extended his lead over his top GOP challengers in the key battleground state of Ohio. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio finds Obama leads Mitt Romney 48% to 40%. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If Santorum is his Republican opponent, the president posts a 47% to 41% lead. Seven percent (7%) favor another candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 43%, Mandel (R) 43%

Republican Josh Mandel, in the first Rasmussen Reports survey since his decisive primary victory, is now running neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. 

The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Buckeye State finds Brown and Mandel each with 43% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another 11% are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%

Republicans hold a five-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, March 25. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by four points, 44% to 40%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 19-25, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

50% Say U. S., Allies Winning War on Terror

Voters tend to believe as they have since the killing of Osama bin Laden last May that the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 17% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the terrorists are winning, while 27% say neither side is ahead. But 50% of voters believe America and its allies are winning the war on terror.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 21-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Obama Widens Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama now clears the 50% mark in support against his top two potential Republican challengers in the battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 18.

The latest finding is down a point from the previous survey and down three points from a recent high of 34% measured in early February.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 12-18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.