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Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 41%, Democrats 40%

Republicans now only lead Democrats by one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 1.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 25-July 1, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.4%, Democrats 34.0%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the United States held relatively steady in June, though the number of voters in President Obama’s party is still at its highest level of 2012.

During June, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans, down slightly from 35.7% in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

52% Favor Repeal of President’s Health Care Law

The U.S. Supreme Court declared that President Obama’s health care law is constitutional, but they were unable to make it popular.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal of the health care law, while 39% are opposed. That’s little changed from a week ago.  Indeed, support for repeal has barely budged since the law was passed.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Approval Ratings for Supreme Court Slip Following Health Care Ruling

Public opinion of the Supreme Court has grown more negative since the highly publicized ruling on the president’s health care law was released. A growing number now believe that the high court is too liberal and that justices pursue their own agenda rather than acting impartially.

A week ago, 36% said the court was doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down to 33% today. However, the big change is a rise in negative perceptions. Today, 28% say the Supreme Court is doing a poor job. That’s up 11 points over the past week.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the court ruling, finds that 56% believe justices pursue their own political agenda rather than generally remain impartial. That’s up five points from a week ago. Just half as many -- 27% -- believe the justices remain impartial. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending June 30, 2012

A week ago, most voters nationwide wanted the Supreme Court to uphold the Arizona immigration law and overturn the president’s health care law. The Supreme Court did just the opposite and now the debate returns to the political arena.

In his weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen notes that the court decision keeps the health care law “alive for now. But it's important to remember that the law has already lost in the court of public opinion. The Supreme Court ruling is a temporary reprieve more than anything else.” Fifty-four percent of voters nationwide still want to see the law repealed.

35% Give Supreme Court Good or Excellent Marks

Thirty-five percent (35%) of Likely Voters nationwide say the U.S. Supreme Court is doing a good or excellent job. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% think the court is doing a fair job, and 22% rate its performance as poor. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In March, just before oral arguments on the health care law, only 28% gave the high court such positive ratings. Those were the lowest ratings ever earned by the court in more than eight years of polling by Rasmussen Reports. But those oral arguments convinced many that the president’s health care law might be overturned, and positive ratings for the court jumped 13 points to 41%.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 27-28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona Senate: Flake (R) 47%, Carmona (D) 31%

Republican front-runner Jeff Flake continues to hold a double-digit lead over Democrat Richard Carmona in the race to fill Arizona's soon-to-be-vacant U.S. Senate seat.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona finds Flake, a U.S. congressman, earning 47% of the vote, while Carmona receives 31% support. Five percent (5%) prefers some other candidate in the race, but a sizable 17% are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on June 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

27% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, June 24.

That's down three points from from 30% the week before and the lowest finding since early April.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 18-24, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona: Romney 54%, Obama 41%

Mitt Romney's support is up in Arizona following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning several provisions of the state's law cracking down on illegal immigration and the Obama administration's announcement that it will not process additional illegals arrested there. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 54% support to President Obama's 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on June 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina Governor: McCrory (R) 49%, Dalton (D) 35%

Republican hopeful Pat McCrory now posts a double-digit lead over Democrat Walter Dalton in the race to be North Carolina’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters shows McCrory earning 49% support to Dalton’s 35%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while a sizable 12% remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on June 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Gap Narrows in North Carolina Governor Race

The gap has narrowed between Republican hopeful Pat McCrory and Democrat Walter Dalton in the race to be North Carolina’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters finds McCrory leading Dalton by five points, 46% to 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while a sizable 10% remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

North Carolina: Romney 47%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney continues to hold a small lead over President Obama in the key swing state of North Carolina. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State finds Romney earning 47% support to Obama’s 44%.  Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on June 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 39%

Republicans lead Democrats by five points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 24.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by seven points the week before, 45% to 38%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 18-24, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Still Favor Repeal of Obama’s Health Care Law

With the U.S. Supreme Court poised to decide the fate of President Obama’s national health care law, most voters still would like to see the law repealed. It’s indicative of how steady support for repeal has been that this week’s finding is identical to how voters felt in the first survey after the law’s passage by Congress in March 2010.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care bill, while 39% are at least somewhat opposed. This includes 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 28% who are Strongly Opposed to it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending June 23, 2012

Next week promises to be a big one. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of President Obama’s national health care law and Arizona’s law cracking down on illegal immigrants. If voters had their way, the health care law would be overturned and the state law upheld, but whatever the high court rules, expect political fireworks.

Voter opinions of the Supreme Court usually change little, but those ratings jumped earlier this year when questions by the justices at a court hearing suggested they might overturn the health care law.  Right now, just over one-third (36%) have a positive view of the Supreme Court. We’ll be checking those favorables again after the court hands down its decisions.

Race for New Hampshire Governor Is Wide Open

The race to be New Hampshire’s next governor has no clear favorite at this early stage.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters finds the top Republican hopefuls – attorney Ovide Lamontagne and former State Representative Kevin Smith – running neck-and-neck with former Democratic State Senator Jackie Cilley and only slightly ahead of another Democratic hopeful, ex-state Senator Maggie Hassan.

But 20% to 25% of voters in the state like some other candidate or are undecided in every case. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on June 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

37% Say America's Best Days Are in the Future

Americans remain more pessimistic than optimistic about the nation's future.

A plurality (45%) of Likely U.S Voters say America’s best days are in the past, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Thirty-seven percent (37%) still believe the best days are in the future.  Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 43%

President Obama holds a five-point lead over Mitt Romney in Rasmussen Reports’ first Election 2012 survey of the key state of New Hampshire.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Granite State finds the president with 48% support, while Romney earns 43% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on June 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

30% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, June 17.

That's up from 29% the week before.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 11-17, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Montana: Romney 51%, Obama 42%

Montana remains in the Romney column again this month.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 42%. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on June 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.