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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 8, 2012

What a way to end a convention. By most accounts, Democrats had a highly successful national convention in Charlotte, but Friday’s jobs report put a sour finish to a week President Obama’s party hoped would put him on the road to reelection.

While the results seemed to surprise many economic forecasters, American workers saw it coming. The Rasmussen Employment Index fell nine points in August to 72.0, the lowest level of confidence since October 2011. Worker confidence in the labor market is now roughly the same as it was in the month following the Wall Street meltdown in the fall of 2008. This is the second straight month that the number reporting layoffs topped the number reporting hiring. Prior to that, there had been eight straight months with more hiring than layoffs reported.

Concern about job security is rising. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of workers are worried about losing their jobs, up four points from a month ago and the highest level of concern measured in 10 months. Just 62% of workers believe it will be their choice when they change jobs. That’s down 12 points from July and down 19 points from May.

Most Voters Still Have an Unfavorable View of Reid, Pelosi

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi continue to be the most disliked leaders of Congress, but none of the top congressional leaders earns high positive reviews from voters. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 29% of Likely U.S. Voters have at least a somewhat favorable impression of Pelosi, while 59% view her unfavorably.  Those figures include a Very Favorable review from 13%, compared to 46% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion of the California Democrat.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on September 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Discover (R) Consumer Spending Monitor (SM): Consumer Confidence Falls For Third Straight Month in August

Consumer confidence fell in August for the third straight month, as the Discover U.S. Spending Monitor(SM) dropped to its lowest level since March 2009. Since January, the Monitor has been in a freefall, dropping nearly 13 points over the last eight months.

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, September 2.

That’s up three points from the week before and the highest finding since early July.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 27-September 2, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 42%

The Republicans now lead the Democrats by just one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 2.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 42% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 27-September 2, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Falls to Ten Month Low

The Rasmussen Employment Index fell nine points in August to 72.0, the lowest level of confidence since October 2011. Worker confidence in the labor market is now roughly the same as it was in the month following the Wall Street meltdown in the fall of 2008.

Generally speaking, a decrease in the Rasmussen Employment Index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be weaker than the prior month’s report.

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The survey of 8,563 working Americans was conducted in August 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

50% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 41% Opposed

Fifty percent (50%) of Likely U.S. Voters continue to favor repeal of President Obama’s national health care law, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Forty-one percent (41%) oppose repeal.

Enthusiasm remains on the side of repeal supporters, with 43% of voters who Strongly Favor it, compared to 33% who are Strongly Opposed.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama’s Monthly Approval Rating Gains A Point in August

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

For the month of August, the president's Total Job Approval Rating moved up a point to 48% from 47% in July. Since the beginning of 2012, that finding has remained in the narrow range of 47% to 49%.  This time last year, the president had an approval rating of 44%.   However, his ratings have been remarkably steady and generally stayed around the 47% mark since late 2009.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending September 1, 2012

Just as Labor Day marks the end of summer for most Americans, it also signals the beginning of the presidential campaign season for many. Now they’ll focus on the race with Election Day looming just two months away.

So where do President Obama and Mitt Romney stand at this point? Heading into the Republican National Convention, the candidates have been even for months in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. At week’s end, Romney was starting to enjoy a modest bounce from his convention. President Obama expects to do the same next week.

Most Think Next President Likely to Be Republican

Most voters still think the next president is likely to be a Republican, but belief that it’s very likely has changed little for months.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that the next president will be a Republican. Twenty-five percent (25%) considerate it unlikely that President Obama will be succeeded by a Republican. Sixteen percent (16%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% Trust Romney More on Economy; 44% Trust Obama More

Voters still trust Mitt Romney more than President Obama when it comes to handling the economy - but just barely. They have more confidence in the president when it comes to national security, and as for taxes, health care and energy policy, the presidential hopefuls are virtually tied, indicative of how close the race remains.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more on the economy, while 44% have more confidence in the president. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

28% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Twenty eight percent (28%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, August 26.

That's down one point from the week before.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 42%, Democrats 42%

For the first time since November, Republicans and Democrats run even on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, August 26 shows that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while another 42% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

8% Think Congress Is Doing A Good Job

The number of voters nationwide who believe Congress is doing a good job remains in single digits.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just eight percent (8%) of Likely U.S. Voters think Congress is doing a good job. Sixty-four percent (64%) give the legislature a poor rating on its job performance. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 22-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Favor Health Care Repeal, Expect Law to Increase Costs

Most voters still support repeal of President Obama’s national health care law and believe it will increase the deficit and the cost of health care.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% favor repeal, while 41% are opposed. This includes 40% who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care measure and 31% who Strongly Oppose it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 24-25, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- For The Week Ending August 25, 2012

Voters are clear that the economy is the most important issue in this year’s presidential campaign, but right now “legitimate rape” and a plan to reform Medicare seem to be dominating much of the media coverage.

Short- and long-term confidence in the nation’s economy continues to hover around lows for the year.  

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of homeowners believe the value of their home will go down over the next year. One-in-four (24%) think the value of their home will go down even further over the next five years. Fewer than half (47%) believe their home is worth more than what they still owe on the mortgage.  

Twenty-six percent (26%) say their home is worth less now than when they bought it.

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 45%, Kaine (D) 45%

The race for Virginia’s open U.S. Senate seat remains one of the tightest of the year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Virginia shows Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine each drawing 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on August 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

41% Say Situation in Afghanistan Will Get Worse in Near Future

The death toll of U.S. troops in Afghanistan rose above 2,000 earlier this month, more voters believe the situation there will get worse.  Still, voters tend to believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 41% think the situation in Afghanistan will get worse in the next six months. Just 18% predict the situation will get better, while 31% say it will remain about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Romney 47%, Obama 47%

Just days before Republicans make Mitt Romney’s candidacy official, he and President Obama are running dead even in the critical battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Virginia shows Romney and Obama each with 47% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on August 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 48%, Wilson (R) 41%

Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich receives his highest level of support yet against former Congresswoman Heather Wilson in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Mexico Likely Voters shows Heinrich with 48% of the vote to Wilson’s 41%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on August 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.