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What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- For The Week Ending July 14, 2012

Election Day is less than four months away, and Rasmussen Reports this week opened its Election 2012 roundup page to bring you the one stop you’ll need to make every day for the latest in political polling news. It features our breaking news polls, in-depth looks at how the presidential candidates stack up the Electoral College, how Senate races nationwide are going, even the Twitter feeds from the candidates themselves.

President Obama and Mitt Romney continue to run neck-and-neck in our daily Presidential Tracking Poll. But right now, Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections show states with 207 Electoral Votes in President Obama’s column, while states with 170 Electoral Voters are projected to go for Mitt Romney. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 247, Romney 191. Seven states, with 100 Electoral College votes, are currently rated as Toss-Ups. 

One of those toss-ups is the key swing state of Florida where new polling finds Romney with 46% support to Obama’s 45%. This is little changed since April after the president posted slight leads earlier in the year.

Romney's well ahead in North Dakota – 51% to 36% - a state that’s considered Safe Republican. Republican Congressman Rick Berg is leading former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp by nine points – 49% to 40% - in the U.S. Senate race in North Dakota.

60% Say Congress Doing Poor Job

Positive ratings for Congress continue to hover in the single digits, and a plurality of voters still believes most members of the national legislature are corrupt.  

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that just seven percent (7%) say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Sixty percent (60%) say the legislators are doing a poor job, a slight improvement from the last several months. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 11-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Dakota: Romney 51%, Obama 36%

Mitt Romney's well ahead in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the presidential race in North Dakota. 

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Romney earning 51% support to President Obama’s 36%. Six percent (6%) prefers some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 400 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on July 10-11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

47% Think U.S. and Allies Are Winning War on Terror

Confidence in how the United States is doing in the War on Terror has fallen to its lowest level this year.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That's down from 51% last month and the lowest finding since November.  Fifteen percent (15%) say the terrorists are winning. Twenty-nine percent (29%) feel neither side is ahead, also the highest finding since November. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 9-10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Dakota Senate: Berg (R) 49%, Heitkamp (D) 40%

Republican Congressman Rick Berg is leading former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp by nine points in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the U.S. Senate race in North Dakota.

A new telephone survey of Likely North Dakota Voters shows Berg with 49% support to Heitkamp’s 40%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 400 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on July 10-11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

32% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 8.

That's up two points from 30% the week before but in line with findings for most of this year. This marks the highest level of optimism since early March.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 2-8, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Florida Senate: Mack (R) 46%, Nelson (D) 37%

Republican Congressman Connie Mack draws his highest level of support yet against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in Florida’s 2012 U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Mack earning 46% of the vote to Nelson’s 37%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on July 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida: Romney 46%, Obama 45%

Florida’s a key swing state in this year’s presidential contest, and it remains in play with President Obama and Mitt Romney still running almost even there.

Florida is considered a Toss-Up State in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Currently, states with 207 Electoral Votes are projected to go for President Obama while states with 170 Electoral Voters are projected to go for Mitt Romney. States with 161 Electoral Votes are projected to be either Toss-Ups or Leaners.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 46% support to the president’s 45%. Five percent (5%) prefer someone else, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on July 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 43%, Democrats 40%

Republicans lead Democrats by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 8.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 25-July 1, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Want Health Care Law Repealed

Most voters still aren’t convinced: They want President Obama’s national health care law repealed as they have said consistently since the measure was passed by Congress over two years ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor the repeal of the health care law, while 41% are opposed. These findings include 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 31% who Strongly Oppose it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 7-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- For The Week Ending July 7, 2012

Most Americans took time off this past week to celebrate the nation’s birth. Seventy-seven percent (77%) watched fireworks, 62% enjoyed a cookout, and 33% sang patriotic songs.

They did so largely because 84% are proud to be Americans.

30% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 1.

That's up three points from 27% the week before, the lowest findings since early April.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 25-July 1, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Economy, Health Care Top Voter Concerns

The economy remains most important to voters on a list of 10 key issues regularly surveyed by Rasmussen Reports, but interest in health care is back up following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision upholding President Obama’s health care law.

New national telephone surveying finds that 74% of Likely U.S. Voters rate the economy as Very Important to how they will vote in the next election. Sixty-seven percent (67%) rate health care as a Very Important issue and 64% say the same about government ethics and corruption. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on June 27-28 and July 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Employment Index Slips To Early 2012 Level

After reaching a four-year high in May, the Rasmussen Employment Index slipped six points in June to 82.7, sending more mixed signals about the jobs market.

The Employment Index is now just two points higher than the level measured at the start of 2012. Still, worker confidence is up five points from a year ago and nine points from the level measured two years ago. At the same time, however, 47% of employed Americans now say their personal finances are getting worse, compared to 30% who think they're getting better. Twenty-seven percent (27%) continue to be worried about losing their jobs.

Obama’s Full-Month Index Rating Dips Slightly In June

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

For the month of June, the president’s Total Job Approval Rating was at 47%. That finding is down two points from May and has remained in the narrow range of 47% to 49% since the beginning of 2012. By comparison, in January 2009, 62% of voters approved of Obama’s job performance.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 41%, Democrats 40%

Republicans now only lead Democrats by one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 1.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from June 25-July 1, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.4%, Democrats 34.0%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%

The number of Democrats and Republicans in the United States held relatively steady in June, though the number of voters in President Obama’s party is still at its highest level of 2012.

During June, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans, down slightly from 35.7% in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

52% Favor Repeal of President’s Health Care Law

The U.S. Supreme Court declared that President Obama’s health care law is constitutional, but they were unable to make it popular.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal of the health care law, while 39% are opposed. That’s little changed from a week ago.  Indeed, support for repeal has barely budged since the law was passed.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Approval Ratings for Supreme Court Slip Following Health Care Ruling

Public opinion of the Supreme Court has grown more negative since the highly publicized ruling on the president’s health care law was released. A growing number now believe that the high court is too liberal and that justices pursue their own agenda rather than acting impartially.

A week ago, 36% said the court was doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down to 33% today. However, the big change is a rise in negative perceptions. Today, 28% say the Supreme Court is doing a poor job. That’s up 11 points over the past week.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the court ruling, finds that 56% believe justices pursue their own political agenda rather than generally remain impartial. That’s up five points from a week ago. Just half as many -- 27% -- believe the justices remain impartial. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending June 30, 2012

A week ago, most voters nationwide wanted the Supreme Court to uphold the Arizona immigration law and overturn the president’s health care law. The Supreme Court did just the opposite and now the debate returns to the political arena.

In his weekly newspaper column, Scott Rasmussen notes that the court decision keeps the health care law “alive for now. But it's important to remember that the law has already lost in the court of public opinion. The Supreme Court ruling is a temporary reprieve more than anything else.” Fifty-four percent of voters nationwide still want to see the law repealed.