GOP Expands Congressional Lead to 5 Points

The 2022 midterm elections are now 81 days away, and Republicans have a five-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is two points higher than last week, when they led 46%-43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly over the past three weeks.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In August 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a seven-point advantage (48% to 41%) in the generic ballot question.  As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

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The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 14-18, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead is mainly due to a nine-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 26% of black voters and 44% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 38% of whites and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is slightly wider in the latest findings, with men (51%) now eight points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was seven points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 14-point margin, 49% to 35%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 51% to 37%, and the GOP lead is 12 points – 52% to 40% – among voters 65 and older.

Retirees support Republicans over Democrats by a 12-point margin, 51% to 39%, while government employees favor Democrats by a 15-point margin.

Republicans lead by eight points, 45%-37%, among voters with incomes below $30,000 a year, while Democrats have an 11-point advantage, 53% to 42%, among voters with annual incomes above $200,000.

Last week’s raid by the Federal Bureau of Investigation on former President Donald Trump’s home has damaged the FBI’s standing with Republican and independent voters.

More voters still have a negative perception of Attorney General Merrick Garland than view him favorably, and don’t think he’s doing a better job than his predecessors.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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